据路透社伦敦1月4日消息，国际能源署（IEA）表示，塑料和其他石化产品需求的日益增长将抵消汽车燃料消耗放缓，从而推动2050年前全球石油需求保持增长。

尽管全球各国政府努力减少来自于石油和天然气的污染和碳排放，但总部设在巴黎的IEA预计印度和中国等新兴经济体的快速增长将推动石化产品的需求。

IEA在一份报告中表示，受电动车辆和更高效的内燃发动机增加的影响，2050年前来自于运输领域的石油需求将放缓，但石化产品领域对石油需求的强劲增长将抵消这部分影响。

IEA署长比罗尔对路透社表示：“石油化工行业是全球能源辩论的盲点之一，毫无疑问，它将是未来多年石油需求增长的关键驱动力。”

据IEA称，2030年前石化产品领域将占全球石油需求增长的三分之一以上，2050年前将占全球石油需求增长的近一半。

2017年全球石化原料需求达到1200万桶/日，占到2017年全球石油总需求的约12%。这一数字预计到2050年将增长到近1800万桶/日。

2050年前全球石化行业大多数石油需求增长将发生在中东和中国，因为中东和中国正在建设大量的石化工厂。

埃克森美孚和荷兰皇家壳牌等石油公司计划在未来几十年投资新建石化工厂，押注新兴经济体对塑料需求的不断上升。

比罗尔表示，在中东，沙特阿拉伯和科威特等主要产油国也正投资建设大型石化工厂，因为这些产油国希望通过将原油直接转化为塑料而不是汽油和柴油等石油产品赚取更多的金钱。

庞晓华摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Rising use of plastics to drive oil demand to 2050

Plastics and other petrochemical products will drive global oil demand to 2050, offsetting slower consumption of motor fuel, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

Despite government efforts to cut pollution and carbon emissions from oil and gas, the Paris-based agency said it expected the rapid growth of emerging economies, such as India and China, to propel demand for petrochemical products.

Petrochemicals that are derived from oil and gas feedstocks form the building blocks for products that range from plastic bottles and beauty products to fertilisers and explosives.

Oil demand for transport is expected to slow by 2050 due to the rise of electric vehicles and more-efficient combustion engines, but that would be offset by rising demand for petrochemicals, the IEA said in a report.

“The petrochemical sector is one of the blind spots of the global energy debate and there is no question that it will be the key driver of oil demand growth for many years to come,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told Reuters.

Petrochemicals are expected to account for more than a third of global oil demand growth by 2030 and nearly half of demand growth by 2050, according to the world’s energy watchdog.

Global demand for petrochemical feedstock accounted for 12 million barrels per day (bpd), or roughly 12 percent of total demand for oil in 2017. The figure is forecast to grow to almost 18 million bpd in 2050.

Most demand growth will take place in the Middle East and China, where big petrochemical plants are being built.

Oil companies such as Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell plan to invest in new petrochemical plants in the coming decades, betting on the rising demand for plastics in emerging economies.

In the Middle East, major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are also investing in large petrochemical plants because in some cases they can make more money by converting crude oil directly into plastics rather than oil products such as gasoline and diesel, Birol said.