据世界石油网1月15日消息 今年几乎还没有开始，但对欧佩克来说，情况已经有所好转，原油在2014年以来第四季度表现最差后开始大幅反弹。

与俄罗斯达成的新的减产协议以及中美贸易关系的解冻给市场带来了提振。但对于欧佩克来说，好消息往往与坏消息同时出现。为此，只需看看二叠纪盆地的情况。

根据能源信息管理局（EIA）的数据，本月美国最大的页岩开采量将达到380万桶/日。这比欧佩克第三大产量的阿拉伯联合酋长国还要多。

沙特能源部长哈立德·法利赫表示，卡特尔决定削减自己的产量，实际上是通过稳定原油价格为美国企业提供了生命线。这是欧佩克视野中的一片乌云，但也有一些好消息。

德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州的大量产出对基础设施造成了严重的压力。据彭博社称，该地区没有能力处理此类产出水平，只能在2018年底出货约350万桶/日。

这些管道限制意味着二叠纪的石油流动对欧佩克关心的全球相关价格的影响较小。据彭博社的一份情报报告显示，去年产量激增，相对于俄克拉荷马州库欣交付的WTI原油以及休斯顿海湾沿岸和德克萨斯州米德兰中心交付的原油价值都有所下降。

据彭博社资讯，对欧佩克来说，坏消息是，美国正致力于另一波管道扩张，到2019年底，这可能增加210万桶/日的输送能力，到2021年，将增加220万桶/日的输送能力。

对欧佩克有利的一面是，页岩油品种较轻，不太适合美国海湾沿岸配置较重等级的炼油厂。这种质量可以保持页岩油价格相对于WTI原油的压力，并随后减少当地勘探者和生产商的现金流。

问题是，亚洲炼油厂可以采用较轻的原油。如果美国页岩能够到达这些工厂，那么美国的钻探公司将很乐意继续开采石油，并威胁到欧佩克在全球增长最快的市场中的份额。

原油必须首先到达亚洲，美国出口基础设施的限制对欧佩克仍是有利的。据彭博社资讯称，美国港口的油罐空间、航运设施和码头容量的限制仍有待解决。

王磊 摘译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Permian boom holds good news and bad news for OPEC

The year has barely begun but it’s already shaping up nicely for OPEC, with crude rebounding sharply after the worst fourth-quarter performance since 2014.

A new production cuts deal with Russia and thawing U.S.-China trade relations have given the market a boost. But for OPEC, good news often comes hand-in-hand with bad news. For that, look no further than the Permian basin.

The biggest shale play in the U.S. is set to pump 3.8 MMbpd this month, according to Energy Information Administration data. That’s more than the United Arab Emirates, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ third-largest producer.

The cartel’s decision to cut its own production has actually thrown a “ lifeline” to companies in the U.S. by stabilizing crude prices, according to Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih. This is a dark cloud on OPEC’s horizon, but there’s some good news.

Prolific output from Texas and New Mexico is placing serious pressure on infrastructure. The region isn’t equipped to handle such output levels and could only ship out around 3.5 MMbpd at the end of 2018, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

These pipeline constraints mean oil flows in the Permian have less of an effect on the globally relevant prices that OPEC cares about. As production surged last year, the value of crude delivered at the Midland, Texas hub relative to Cushing, Oklahoma -- the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate -- and on the Gulf coast at Houston dropped, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report.

The bad news for OPEC is that the U.S. is working on another wave of pipeline expansion, which could add 2.1 MMbpd of takeaway capacity by the end of 2019, and another 2.2 MMbpd by 2021, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

On the plus side for OPEC, shale oil is of the lighter variety that’s less amenable to U.S. Gulf coast refineries configured for heavier grades. That quality could keep the pressure on shale oil prices compared with WTI, and subsequently diminish the cash flow of local explorers and producers.

Problem is, Asian refineries can take the lighter crude. If U.S. shale can reach those plants, then American drillers will happily keep pumping and threatening OPEC’s share of the world’s fastest growing market.

The crude must get to Asia first, and limitations in U.S. export infrastructure work in OPEC’s favor here. Constraints on tank space, shipping facilities and dock capacity at U.S. ports still have to be resolved, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.