据RIGZONE网1月15日消息 根据Rystad Energy目前的长期展望显示，石油需求将在本世纪20年代稳步增长，并在30年代末达到峰值。

Rystad能源首席石油分析师Bjornar Tonhaugen在最近在一份声明中表示：“在我们的长期展望中，我们目前看到石油需求将稳步增长至2020年，并在2030年代末达到高峰，当我们采用适度的技术转移和加速效率收益，这将使交通需求和石化原料需求增长趋于平稳至2040年。”

然而，Tonhaugen警告称，在该公司的“低价案例”中，石油需求可能会在10年前的2027年达到峰值，“由于运输电气化速度加快、石油天然气和石油再生能源转换以及生物燃料和生物塑料的整合，将产生额外的需求转移”。

Rystad能源代表补充说:“即使在运输电气化速度加快的情况下，勘探和生产行业仍需要进行新的发现或找到从现有油田开采更多石油的方法，以满足2040年的石油需求。”

加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)大宗商品策略主管Helima Croft周一在接受CNBC电视台采访时表示，需求是目前对石油最大的心理阻力。

吴慧丹 摘译自 RIGZONE

Oil Demand to Grow Steadily in 2020s

Oil demand will grow steadily in the 2020s and peak in the late 2030s, according to Rystad Energy’s current long-term outlook.

“In our long-term outlook we currently see oil demand growing steadily in the 2020s and peaking in the late-2030s, as we incorporate moderate technological shifts and accelerated efficiency gains that will flatten on-road transportation demand and petrochemical feedstock demand growth towards 2040,” Rystad Energy’s Chief Oil Analyst Bjornar Tonhaugen said in a statement sent to Rigzone recently.

Tonhaugen warned however that in the company’s “low case”, oil demand could potentially peak ten years earlier, in 2027, “given additional demand displacement by a more rapid transportation electrification, oil-to-gas and oil-to-renewables power switching, and the integration of biofuels and bioplastics”.

The Rystad Energy representative added that “even in a scenario with more rapid transportation electrification, the E&P industry still needs to make new discoveries and/or find ways to extract more oil out of existing fields to satisfy oil demand to 2040”.

Demand is the biggest psychological headwind for oil right now, according to Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, who expressed the view in a television interview with CNBC on Monday.