据Oil & Gas Journal网站3月21日休斯顿报道 欧洲大陆天然气价格目前已降至约5美元/百万英热单位，较9月底的峰值下跌50%。由于气候变暖、大量的液化天然气进口以及活跃的可再生能源，导致供需减少。

摩根士丹利认为，较低的定价条件可能会促使美国降低液化天然气利用率。

据摩根士丹利称，目前欧洲天然气价格比美国液化天然气的长期边际成本低2美元/百万英热单位，也略低于美国液化天然气的短期边际成本。另外亚洲市场也发出了类似的信号。

“我们注意到，2016年当全球天然气价格也很低时，美国和全球的液化天然气产量都有所下降。而目前美国Sabine Pass的液化天然气出口似乎没有下降，但我们也注意到，Sabine Pass的仓库现在已满（根据普氏能源的数据），包括停泊船只提供的容量。”

作为向欧洲进口液化天然气的一部分，美国1-2月的供应量同比增长了10倍。在全球范围内，美国液化天然气正迅速从2015年的0%增长到2019年的11%。此外，根据伍德麦肯兹的数据，预计2019年新建的液化天然气工厂中，约45%都在美国。

同时，在1-2月，俄罗斯进口的液化天然气（亚马尔液化天然气项目）比美国的液化天然气增长更快因为有竞争力的欧洲价格（与亚洲相比）和提前完成的项目导致了大量现货上市销售。

吴恒磊 编译自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

Morgan Stanley: Low European gas prices to prompt US LNG utilization cuts

European mainland gas prices have fallen now to about $5/MMbtu, a 50% decline from late September peaks. The loss in supply-demand is due to warmer weather, large LNG imports, and more active renewables.

Morgan Stanley argues that poor pricing conditions are likely to prompt US LNG utilization rate cuts.

According to Morgan Stanley, current European gas prices are more than $2/MMbtu below long-run marginal cost of US LNG and just shy of US LNG short-run marginal costs. The Asian market is sending similar signals.

“We noticed that in 2016, when global gas prices were also low, LNG output declined both locally in the US as well as globally. We noted that there seems to be no decline in LNG exports from Sabine Pass in the US. But we also noticed that storages at Sabine Pass are now full (according to Platts) including capacity offered by berthed vessels.”

As a share of LNG imports into Europe, US supplies increased 10 times year-over-year in January-February. In the global text, US LNG is rapidly expanding from 0% in 2015 to 11% in 2019. Also, of all the new LNG plants expected in 2019, about 45% are in the US, according to data from Wood Mackenzie.

Meantime, in January-February, LNG imports from Russia (Yamal LNG) rose even quicker year-over-year than US LNG. Competitive European prices (vs. Asia) and an early project completion leading to a large share of spot sales explain this.