据普氏能源资讯休斯顿3月26日消息 一项新的研究发现，德克萨斯州将在未来30多年里增加超过1万英里的新管道基础设施项目以充分发挥其石油和天然气产量增长的潜力，而这些项目目前尚未规划。

IHS Markit的这项研究预测，德克萨斯州的三个主要产气区即二叠纪盆地、鹰福特页岩和巴奈特页岩的天然气产量将在2030年达到峰值。

该研究者估计，在没有建设未来增量管道基础设施的情况下，德克萨斯州的天然气产量将比基础设施建设方案低24%，原油产量将低9%，LNG产量将比预计低8%。

普氏在将历史产量与5年产量预测进行比较时发现，在过去10年里，德克萨斯州的天然气总产量从2010年的18.6亿立方英尺/天增长到去年的19.7亿立方英尺/天，增长超过1亿立方英尺/天。

普氏分析数据显示，未来五年的日产量预计将在2024年继续攀升至240亿立方英尺/天。

该研究预计到2050年，除了计划或在建的管道项目外，还必须建造大约20个新项目，总里程约为10950英里，以适应这段期间预期的碳氢化合物产量增长。其中，约47%是石油项目，29%是天然气项目，24%是NGL。

德克萨斯石油天然气协会主席Todd Staples表示，受原油产量预期增长以及与之相关的额外天然气和NGL产量增加的推动，大部分新基础设施建设将需要在二叠纪盆地进行。

该研究预测，到本世纪20年代中期，二叠纪的石油产量将从2017年的平均250万桶/天增长至550万桶/天左右。与此同时，二叠纪天然气产量预计到2030年将增加到约240亿立方英尺/天，而二叠纪NGL产量预计到2040年将增加到近220万桶/天。

吴慧丹 摘译自 普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

Texas needs another 10,000 miles of gas, oil pipelines by 2050

Texas will need to add more than 10,000 miles of new, currently unplanned, pipeline infrastructure projects in the next 30-plus years to achieve its full potential for growth of oil and gas production, a new study finds.

The study, by IHS Markit, predicts that gas production from three major Texas producing regions - the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford Shale and the Barnett -- will peak in the 2030 timeframe at just

Without the construction of future incremental pipeline infrastructure the study's authors estimate Texas' production of natural gas will be 24% lower than in the infrastructure buildout scenario, while crude production would be 9% lower, and natural gas liquids production would be 8% lower than projected.

In comparing historic production with its five-year production forecast, Platts Analytics found that in the last decade total Texas gas production grew by more than 1 Bcf/d from 18.6 Bcf/d in 2010 to 19.7 Bcf/d last year. Production over the next five years is expected to continue ramping up to 24 Bcf/d in 2024, according to Platts Analytics data.

The study projects that by 2050, in addition to pipeline projects planned or under construction, about 20 new projects with total mileage of about 10,950 miles, will have to be built to accommodate the expected hydrocarbon production growth over that time period. Of these, about 47% would be oil projects, while 29% would carry gas and 24% NGLs.

Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil and Gas Association, said much of the new infrastructure construction will need to take place in the Permian Basin, driven by the expected growth of crude oil production, as well as the additional natural gas and NGL production associated with it.

The study predicts Permian oil production to grow from a 2017 average of about 2.5 million b/d to about 5.5 million b/d by the mid-2020s. Meanwhile Permian natural gas production is expected to increase to approximately 24 Bcf/d by 2030, while Permian NGL production is expected to expand to almost 2.2 million b/d by 2040.