据离岸工程5月22日消息称，在百慕大注册的液化天然气航运公司戈拉尔液化天然气公司表示，第一季度液化天然气(LNG)航运市场从第四季度的强劲水平下滑，符合历史季节性。

日本和韩国的需求下降，是由于冬季气温较预期温和，以及几座核设施重启。

中国第一季度的需求比2018年第一季度增长了20%。今年第一季度，液化天然气价格跌至3年低点，这消除了跨流域间的交易机会。在季度末，液化天然气的交易价格约为布伦特原油的6%，远低于能源平价。

与2018年第一季度相比，美国和俄罗斯运往欧洲的大西洋盆地货物数量翻了一番。由由于这些额外的货物仍在欧洲，整个季度的吨英里数和运费继续下降，截至3月底，现货TFDE和ST运费分别达到4万美元和2.4万美元。

到目前为止，2019年第二季度的运价已经低于第一季度，但运价和活动已经开始了季节性复苏。

天然气市场强劲的期货溢价(2019年12月的远期价格为900万桶/天)为航运市场的改善提供了坚实支撑。2019年船舶需求增长15%，而供应增长9%。

预计2020年船舶需求将进一步增长14%，而供应增幅将再次落后于9%。这让我们更加相信，即液化天然气航运将在未来几年进入结构性短缺时期。

主要经纪商继续预测，到2019年底，船舶供应缺口将超过10艘，到2020年底将超过20艘。预计利率将从2019年2月开始反映这一趋势，并在未来两年保持强劲。这导致对中长期租船人的要求增加。

戈拉尔最近与石油和天然气巨头以及大型液化天然气承租人签订了几份租赁合同。这些租船合同以指数挂钩费率为基础，确保租船得到充分利用。

曹海斌 摘译自 离岸工程

原文如下：

LNG Shipping Market Declines in Q1: Golar

The 1Q liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping market declined from strong 4Q levels in line with historic seasonality, said Golar LNG, a LNG shipping company registered in Bermuda.

Chinese 1Q demand was up 20% up on 1Q 2018. During the quarter LNG prices reached 3-year lows, which eliminated inter-basin trading opportunities. At quarter end, LNG was trading at around 6% of Brent, well below energy parity.

Atlantic basin cargoes from the US and Russia into Europe doubled by volume compared to 1Q 2018. With these additional volumes remaining in Europe, ton-miles and shipping rates continued to fall throughout the quarter, with spot TFDE and ST rates reaching $40,000 and $24,000 respectively by the end of March.

Shipping rates achieved so far in 2Q 2019 have been weaker than 1Q but rates and activity have now commenced their seasonal recovery.

The strong contango in the gas market with forward prices of $9mmbtu being quoted for December 2019 give solid support to an improved shipping market. The 2019 vessel demand growth of 15% is expected against supply growth of 9%.

Further vessel demand growth of 14% is expected in 2020 with supply growth again lagging at 9%. This reinforces our belief that LNG shipping will enter a period of structural shortage for the next few years.

Leading brokers continue to forecast a 10+ vessel shortfall at the end of 2019, increasing to more than 20 at the end of 2020. Rates are expected to reflect this from 2H 2019 and remain strong for the next two years. This has resulted in an increase in requests for medium to long-term charterers.

Golar has recently concluded several charters with oil and gas majors and large LNG charterers. These charters are based on index-linked rates and secure full utilization of the chartered vessels.