据天然气工业5月27日消息称，ESAI Energy最新发布的《全球液化天然气展望》显示，印度和中国液化天然气需求的重新增长，将导致今年晚些时候美国液化天然气出口的增长。由于出口遭遇产能限制，及时在美国和加拿大建成新的液化石油气出口终端，将对这种出口增长至关重要。更强劲的需求对丙烷和丁烷价格也有影响，它们与石脑油的折价已大幅扩大。

ESAI Energy的12个月展望显示，随着2019年的进展，印度和中国需求的增强将导致美国液化石油气出口增加。正如该报告所描述的，印度需求增长已从2018年的低迷中复苏。在2018年跌至5年低点后，该国的年需求增长将跃升至6万桶/天。鉴于中国今年的供应几乎不会增长，进口将需要满足几乎所有的新需求。直到不久前还是全球需求火车头的中国，其需求在2018年下半年出现下降，到2019年迄今几乎没有变化。随着印度的脚步，PDH和NGL-fed乙烯装置近期在中国的投产，将推动中国的经济再度增长。

ESAI Energy NGL负责人Andrew Reed解释道：“中国将从中东和亚洲进口更多的液化石油气。然而，随着非美国产品进入中国市场，美国产品进入其它亚洲市场的需求将会增加。亚洲需求看涨，加拿大西部和美国海湾沿岸新的液化石油气终端消除了出口瓶颈，这些发展将推动蒙特-贝尔维尤丙烷和丁烷价格上涨。”

曹海斌 摘译自 天然气工业

原文如下：

US LPG exports set to climb

Renewed LPG demand growth in India and China will lead to growth of US exports later this year, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published Global NGL Outlook. Since exports have bumped up against capacity constraints, the timely completion of new LPG export terminals in the US and Canada will be vital to this export growth. Stronger demand has implications for propane and butane prices, whose discounts to naphtha have widened considerably.

As the year 2019 progresses, strengthening demand in India and China will lead to higher US LPG exports, according to ESAI Energy’s 12-month outlook. As the report describes, Indian demand growth has already emerged from its 2018 slump. Annual demand growth in that country will jump to 60 000 bpd after falling to a five-year low in 2018. Given that the country’s supply will barely grow this year, imports will be needed to meet almost all the new demand. Demand in China, until recently the locomotive of global demand, fell in the second half of 2018 and barely changed so far in 2019. Following in India’s footsteps, the near-term commissioning of PDH and NGL-fed ethylene units in China will to lead to renewed growth in that country.

“China will import more LPG from Middle East and Asian sources,” explains ESAI Energy Head of NGLs Andrew Reed. “However, there will be greater demand for US product to swap into other Asian markets as non-US product is swapped into the Chinese market. Between bullish Asian demand and new LPG terminals in Western Canada and the US Gulf Coast that eliminate export bottlenecks, developments will provide a boost to Mont Belvieu propane and butane prices.