据世界天然气网站7月1日消息 澳大利亚政府工业、创新和科学部修订了澳大利亚液化天然气收益预测。

《资源与能源季刊》季度数据显示，液化天然气出口收益已从2019年3月的季度报告中上调，目前预计在2019-20年将上调11亿美元，这反映出油价预测上调，澳元/美元汇率下调。

价格上调抵消了出口量下调的影响。康菲石油公司在6月确认，预计达尔文液化天然气厂将在2021年至2023年期间关闭1-2年，届时Bayu-Undan气田的天然气将被耗尽。

虽然达尔文液化天然气产量下降已被纳入3月份《资源与能源季刊》的展望，但现在预计产量将以更快的速度下降。

报告显示，澳大利亚在2018-19年间出口了约500亿美元的液化天然气，高于2017-18年间的310亿美元。石油价格的回升（相对于2017-18年）以及液化天然气出口的增长（尤其是Wheatstone和Ichthys液化天然气项目）推动了出口收益的提高。

王磊 摘译自 世界天然气

原文如下：

Australia forecasts higher 2019-20 LNG earnings

Australian government’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science has revised the forecast for Australian liquefied natural gas earnings.

The Resources and Energy Quarterly data shows that the LNG export earnings have been revised up from the March 2019 quarterly report, and are now expected to be $1.1 billion higher in 2019-20, reflecting an upwards revision to the oil price forecast, and the downward revision to the AUD/USD exchange rate assumption.

An upward revision to prices has offset the impact of a downward revision to export volumes. ConocoPhillips confirmed in June that it expected the Darwin LNG plant to shut down for 1-2 years, starting between 2021 and 2023, when gas from the Bayu-Undan field is exhausted.

While falling output at Darwin LNG was factored into the outlook for the March Resources and Energy Quarterly, production is now expected to decline at a faster rate.

The report shows that Australia exported an estimated $50 billion of LNG in 2018–19, up from $31 billion in 2017–18. Higher export earnings have been driven by the recovery in oil prices (relative to 2017–18), and the ramp-up of LNG exports, particularly from the Wheatstone and Ichthys LNG projects.