据天然气工业7月16日消息称，Wood Mackenzie首席分析师Asti Asra表示，到2040年，南亚和东南亚地区的液化天然气需求将增长5倍以上，达到2.36亿吨/年。其中近一半的需求将来自印尼和印度这两个主要市场。

到2040年，印度和印度尼西亚这两个主要市场的需求分别为6300万吨/年和4300万吨/年，不同行业的需求都在增长。印度的需求是由工业和城市天然气驱动的，而印尼的需求是由电力驱动的。人们对再气化终端有着积极的兴趣，但不确定性更多地存在于下游的连通性。一些现有的再气化终端面临低利用率，在等待管道连接和长期需求增长的同时，这种情况还将继续存在。对于印度尼西亚而言，仅在本世纪30年代才需要进口液化天然气，这意味着在短期内，印尼国家石油公司(Pertamina)将需要管理其各种采购承诺。

到2040年，马来西亚和泰国的液化天然气进口需求都将增长至2000万吨/年左右。尽管整体天然气需求缺乏强劲增长。成熟油田和有限的成功勘探油田导致液化天然气的需求，以填补国内产量的下降。这两个国家都在朝着开放天然气市场和打破国家石油公司垄断的方向迈进。再气化终端现已向第三方开放，电力公司等其它实体也可以直接进口液化天然气。

巴基斯坦和孟加拉国面临着国内产量下降和天然气需求持续增长的双重影响，到2040年，两国的液化天然气需求将分别达到2500万吨/年左右。新的再气化终端将被要求进入这些市场。此外，孟加拉国将需要引入价格改革，以反映液化天然气价格上涨的影响。

在接下来的一系列新兴市场中，越南是最有前景的市场。超过十个再气化终端已经被提出，Wood Mackenzie预测其中三个将在2024年开始投入使用。对菲律宾来说，其在巴丹加斯的再气化终端的时间将取决于其主要马拉姆帕亚油田的枯竭速度。作为油田运营商，壳牌表示，可能会持续生产至2030年。这意味着终端时间表可能会推迟到那个时候。2018年1月，缅甸批准了4个天然气发电项目，以满足该国的电力需求。

总之，南亚和东南亚地区将在未来二十年内实现液化天然气需求的快速增长。液化天然气供应商和基础设施投资者都有机会打开这些增长型市场。

曹海斌 摘译自 天然气工业

原文如下：

LNG demand in South and Southeast Asia to quintuple by 2040

LNG demand from the South and Southeast Asia region will grow over five times to reach 236 million tpy by 2040. Almost half of that demand will come from the two major markets of Indonesia and India, according to Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Asti Asra.

The two major markets of India and Indonesia, with 63 million tpy and 43 million tpy of demand respectively by 2040, see demand growing from different sectors. India’s demand is driven by industrial and city gas, while Indonesia’s is power-driven. There is active interest in the regasification terminals, but uncertainty lies more in the downstream connectivity. Some existing regasification terminals face low utilisation rates and will remain so while awaiting pipeline connectivity and demand growth in the long-term. For Indonesia, LNG imports will only be required in the 2030s which means in the near term, national oil company (NOC) Pertamina will need to manage its various purchase commitments.

LNG import requirement grows to around 20 million tpy in 2040 for both Malaysia and Thailand. This is despite a lack of strong growth in overall gas demand. Mature fields and limited successful exploration fields lead to an LNG requirement to backfill the decline in domestic production. Both countries are also moving towards liberalising their gas markets and breaking up the monopolies of their NOCs. Regasification terminals have now been opened up to third-party access and other entities such as power companies may import LNG directly.

Pakistan and Bangladesh face the double effect of declining domestic production and continued growth in gas demand, leading to LNG demand of around 25 million tpy each by 2040. New regasification terminals will be required to access these markets. In addition, Bangladesh will need to introduce price reforms to reflect the impact of higher LNG prices.

Out of the next set of emerging markets, Vietnam is the most promising one. Over ten regasification terminals have been proposed, and Wood Mackenzie forecasts three of them to come online, starting from 2024. For the Philippines, the timing of its regasification terminal in Batangas will depend on the depletion rate of its main Malampaya field. Shell, as the field operator, has stated that continued production is possible until 2030. That means the terminal timeline could be delayed until then. In January 2018, Myanmar approved four LNG-to-power projects to fulfil the country’s power demand.

In summary, the South and South East Asia region will see rapid LNG demand growth over the next two decades. There are opportunities for both LNG suppliers and investors in infrastructure to open up these growth markets.