据世界能源8月7日消息称，一项新的研究显示，美国的煤炭发电正被更清洁的能源所取代——主要原因是廉价天然气储量丰富。

据雷斯塔能源公司称，美国太阳能和风能的新可再生能源产能正在上升，2019年4月，美国可再生能源发电量首次超过煤炭发电量。

然而，不断增长的可再生能源行业并不完全对燃煤电厂的持续停产以及新煤电厂建设的必要暂停负责。

雷斯塔能源煤炭研究负责人Steve Hulton表示：“美国燃料煤行业陷入严重困境。然而，煤炭作为发电首选燃料的消亡，主要是因为廉价天然气的兴起，而非可再生能源。”

雷斯塔能源天然气市场研究主管Carlos Torres-Diaz 表示：“从2008年到2019年，美国页岩气产量的强劲增长，使美国电力生产商的天然气平均燃料成本减少了一半以上，从而导致天然气发电的显著增长。”

雷斯塔能源预测，2019年天然气发电将占美国总发电量的38%，创历史新高。这几乎是2008年水平的2.5倍。

由于市场机制和更高的热效率，可再生能源和天然气发电厂的新产能(抵消了老燃煤发电厂的淘汰)以及煤制气转换的增加，推动了这一增长。

Torres-Diaz表示：“从煤炭转向天然气，在很大程度上是由简单的燃料成本经济学引发的。较低的天然气价格是生产成本下降和美国页岩气开采量增加的直接结果。”

过去10年，美国发电企业的天然气平均成本下降了近60%，而燃料煤的成本则相对持平。

尽管美国没有一个联邦碳定价计划，但从煤炭发电转向天然气发电，以及可再生能源的增长，已导致电力行业二氧化碳排放量下降。

发电厂能源消耗产生的二氧化碳排放量与燃煤发电量同时下降，从2007年的25亿公吨下降到2017年的18亿公吨。

雷斯塔能源预测，鉴于天然气产量的持续增长以及制约出口的基础设施瓶颈，未来几年美国天然气价格将保持在非常低的水平。

曹海斌 摘译自 世界能源

Cheap Natural Gas Kills U.S. Coal

A new study revealed that coal power is being replaced by cleaner energy sources in the US – primarily due to an abundance of cheap natural gas.

According to Rystad Energy, new renewable energy capacity from solar and wind is on the rise in the US, and April 2019 marked the first month when more electricity was generated in the country from renewable sources than from coal.

However, the growing renewable energy sector alone is not wholly responsible for the on-going retirement of coal-fired power plants and the essential moratorium on the construction of new coal plants.

“The US thermal coal industry is in severe trouble. However, coal’s demise as the fuel of choice for power generators is primarily due to the upsurge of cheap natural gas and not renewable sources of power,” says Steve Hulton, Head of Coal Research at Rystad Energy.

“Strong growth in US shale gas production has more than halved the average fuel cost of natural gas for US electricity producers from 2008 to 2019, in turn leading to a remarkable rise in gas-fueled power generation,” Carlos Torres-Diaz, Rystad Energy’s Head of Gas Market research, added.

Rystad Energy forecasts that natural gas-fueled generation will hit a record 38% share of total US electrical power generated in 2019. This is almost two and a half times the level seen in 2008.

The increase has been spurred by the new capacity of renewable and gas power plants – offsetting the retirement of older coal-fired power plants – and from increased coal-to-gas switching, thanks to a combination of market mechanisms and higher thermal efficiency.

“The move from coal to gas was largely triggered by simple fuel cost economics. Lower gas pricing is a direct result of the falling production costs and increasing volumes of US shale gas extraction,” Torres-Diaz remarked.

The average cost of natural gas for US electricity generators has fallen almost 60% over the last decade, while the cost of thermal coal on the other hand has been relatively flat.

Despite the US not having a federal carbon pricing program, the switch from coal to gas power generation and the growth in renewable energy has resulted in lower carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector.

Carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption at power plants have dropped in tandem with coal-fired power generation from a level of 2.5 billion metric tons in 2007 to 1.8 billion metric tons in 2017.

Rystad Energy forecasts that US natural gas prices will remain very low for the next couple of years given continued growth in gas production and infrastructure bottlenecks that will limit exports.