据Oil & Gas Journal网站8月6日报道 美国能源信息管理局（EIA）在其最新的短期能源展望中预测布伦特原油现货价格今年下半年将平均为64美元/桶，2020年将平均为65美元/桶。EIA对全球石油市场相对平衡的预期以及对稳定原油价格的预测结合了石油供应中断的风险和对经济增长的较低预期的共同作用。

EIA预测，今年全球石油库存将增加10万桶/天，2020年将增加30万桶/天。

EIA预计，今年第四季度和2020年西德克萨斯州中质原油价格将平均低于布伦特原油价格5.50美元/桶，从7月份的6.60美元/桶价差缩小。缩小的价差反映了EIA预测，即原油管道从二叠纪盆地至墨西哥湾海岸的运输限制将在未来几个月得到缓解。

然而，这一最新的差异预测比上个月报告中的4美元/桶价差预测更大，因为EIA修订了其关于原油从库欣通过管道输送至墨西哥湾海岸的边际成本的预测。

吴恒磊 编译自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

EIA: Global oil market expected to remain in balance in second half

The US Energy Information Administration, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasts Brent crude spot prices will average $64/bbl in this year’s second half and $65/bbl in 2020. The forecast of stable crude oil prices reflects EIA’s expectations of a relatively balanced global oil market amid the combination of risks for oil-supply disruptions and lower expectations for economic growth.

EIA forecasts global oil inventories will increase by 100,000 b/d this year and 300,000 b/d in 2020.

EIA expects West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will average $5.50/bbl less than Brent prices during this year’s fourth quarter and in 2020, narrowing from the $6.60/bbl spread during July. The narrowing spread reflects EIA’s assumption that crude oil pipeline transportation constraints from the Permian basin to the Gulf Coast will ease in the coming months.

However, this updated differential forecast is wider than the $4/bbl spread forecast made in last month’s report, as EIA revised its assumptions about the marginal cost of moving crude oil via pipeline from Cushing to the Gulf Coast.