据普氏能源资讯8月7日报道 美国能源信息管理局（EIA）周二公布的短期能源展望（STEO）显示，2019年煤炭产量将达到6.88亿英石，较上年同期下降2.7%。

8月对2019年产量的预测比7月的预测上升了0.6%，这是4个月来的首次增长。

2020年的预测也比上个月的预测增长了1.8%，EIA目前预测明年产量将达到6.51亿英石。

这是自3月EIA预测明年约6.64亿英石以来的最高2020年产量预测。

8月份报告预计今年煤炭出口总量将达到1亿英石，比7月份报告增长4.1%，这是自4月份以来首次达到1亿英石以上。从2018年出口来看，EIA预计下降13.5%。

2020年，EIA预测出口9040万英石，较2019年预测下降9.6%，较上月预测上升3%。

8月是五个月来EIA首次增加2020年出口预测。

据预测，今年电力行业消费总量仅超过5.38亿英石，较2018年下降15.5%，明年约为5.25亿英石，较2019年预测下降2.3%。

2019年美国消费总额预计为5.89亿英石，比上年下降14.4%。EIA 2020年预测约为5.76亿英石，比2019年预测下降2.3%。

与2018年美国煤炭发电量27.4%相比，EIA预计2019年和2020年的煤炭发电份额均为24%，与上个月的预测持平。

在最新的STEO中，天然气发电在2019年的份额预计为37%，比7月份的预测下降了一个百分点。

2020年发电量预测为36%，低于7月份37%的预测，这是自2018年12月STEO以来，第二次天然气发电份额预测环比下降。

EIA预测2019年8月天然气产量为910亿立方英尺/日，较2018年增长9.2%，而2020年预测为925亿立方英尺/日，较2019年预测增长1.6%。预计今年电力行业消费量为305.7亿立方英尺/日，较2018年增长3.7%，2020年为295.6亿立方英尺/日，同比下降3.3%。

王磊 摘译自 普氏能源

原文如下：

EIA forecasts US coal production to drop 2.7% on year in 2019

The US Energy Information Administration forecast coal production totaling 688 million st in 2019, down 2.7% from the year-ago production, the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook reported Tuesday.

August's forecast for 2019 output was up 0.6% from July's forecast, and the first increase in four months.

The 2020 projection increased, as well, from the prior month's forecast by 1.8% and the EIA now forecasts 651 million st in output next year.

This was the highest 2020 output projection since March when the EIA forecast about 664 million st next year.

Coal exports for this year were projected to total 100 million st in the August report, up 4.1% from the July report and the first time the export forecast has reached 100 million st or above since April. From 2018 exports, the EIA projects a 13.5% drop.

In 2020, the EIA forecast 90.4 million st of exports, down 9.6% from the 2019 projection and up 3% from the previous month's forecast.

August was the first time in five months the EIA increased its 2020 export projection.

Power sector consumption was forecast to total just over 538 million st this year, down 15.5% from 2018 consumption, and about 525 million st next year, down 2.3% from the 2019 projection.

Total US consumption was forecast to be 589 million st in 2019, down 14.4% from the previous year. The EIA 2020 forecast was about 576 million st, down 2.3% from the 2019 forecast.

Compared with US coal-powered generation of 27.4% in 2018, the EIA projected coal generation share of 24% in 2019 and 24% in 2020, both flat from the previous month's forecast.

Natural gas generation's share for 2019 was projected to be 37% in the most recent STEO, down one percentage point from the July forecast.

The 2020 generation forecast was 36%, down from July's projection of 37% and the second time the gas power share forecast has dropped month over month since the December 2018 STEO.

The EIA forecast gas production at 91 Bcf/d for 2019 in August, which would be up 9.2% from 2018 production, while the 2020 forecast was 92.5 Bcf/d, up 1.6% from the 2019 forecast. Power sector consumption this year was predicted to be 30.57 Bcf/d, up 3.7% from 2018 consumption, and 29.56 Bcf/d in 2020, down 3.3% year on year.