据今日油价8月7日报道，在过去的几天里，需求增长的恐惧对石油价格产生了负面影响，布伦特原油期货价格大幅下跌至每桶60美元，WTI原油期货价格正努力奔向50美元的基准目标，然而，美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，8月石油市场看涨。

在2018年10月达到10249万桶的峰值后，截至2019年7月，全球石油日产量已下降逾200万桶。此外，尽管预计在2019年7月至12月期间，美国石油日产量将增长165万桶，但2019年12月，全球石油日产量预计仍将平均为1.02亿桶，与一年前持平。全球石油供应增长停滞的原因是，从2018年11月到今天，欧佩克的日产量下降了270万桶。

与此同时，尽管人们对全球石油需求增长感到担忧，但石油需求仍在增长，并没有像供应那样缓慢停滞。根据EIA的最新数据，2018年7月至2019年7月，全球石油需求每天增长74万桶，而同期全球石油供应每天减少67万桶。

展望未来，看看EIA对2019年7月至12月全球石油供应的假设，我们注意到，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将从7月的6550万桶增长至12月的6700万桶，增幅为150万桶。美国石油供应预计将增长165万桶，全球石油供应预计将增长153万桶。通过对这些数字的分析，我们不难看出，美国的石油供应不仅有望带动今年剩余时间全球石油供应的全部增长，而且预计还将弥补其它地区石油供应的下降。

毫无疑问，未来几个月，美国石油供应将继续增长，不过，按照EIA模型计算，美国石油供应的增长幅度似乎非常鼓舞人心。在钻井平台数量下降、钻井平台产能趋平、油价暴跌的背景下，美国石油产量在未来6个月如EIA预期的那样快速增长的可能性非常令人怀疑。正如之前强调的，美国页岩油供应对油价的变化非常敏感。如果西德克萨斯中质原油价格在未来几周跌破50美元/桶，美国未来几个月以及2020年供应增长放缓的程度，很可能会达到甚至超过国际贸易紧张局势导致的全球石油需求增长放缓的预期。美国页岩油不仅为油价设定了上限，还设定了下限。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

The Bullish EIA Message Markets Have Overlooked

Demand growth fears have had a detrimental impact on crude prices over the last couple of days, with Brent dipping firmly under $60 a barrel and WTI racing towards the $50 psychological benchmark, yet a cursory review of the EIA August STEO reveals a fundamentally bullish picture for the oil market.

After peaking at 102.49M barrels in October 2018 global oil supply has declined by over 2M bpd barrels as of July 2019. Furthermore, despite an expected 1.65M bpd growth in US liquids supply between July and December 2019, global oil supply is still expected to average 102M bpd in December 2019, exactly where it was a year prior. The reason for the stalling in global oil supply growth is the decline in OPEC’s production by 2.7M bpd between November 2018 and today.

In the meantime, despite worries about global oil demand growth, oil demand is still growing and has not crawled to a halt as is the case with supply. Between July 2018 and July 2019, global oil demand grew by 740,000 barrels per day against 670,000 barrels per day decline in global supply during the same period as per the latest EIA numbers.

Going forward and Looking at the EIA’s global oil supply assumptions between July and December 2019, we notice that non-OPEC supply is expected to grow from 65.5M in July to 67M barrels in December, or 1.5M barrels growth. US supply is expected to grow by 1.65M barrels, and global oil supply is expected to grow by 1.53M barrels. Parsing through these numbers, we can easily see that US supply is not just expected to deliver all the growth in global oil supply for the rest of the year, but is also expected to compensate for declines elsewhere.

There is no question that US oil supply will continue to grow in the coming months, however the extent of the growth in US supply as per the EIA models appears highly inspirational. Against a background of a declining rig count, flattening rig productivity, and imploding oil prices, the likelihood of US oil production growing as briskly as the EIA expects in the next six months is highly suspect. As I have highlighted in a previous article on Oilprice.com, US shale supply is exceedingly sensitive to changes in the oil price. Should WTI dip below $50 in the coming weeks, the extent of the slowdown in US supply growth in the coming months (and in 2020) is likely to meet if not exceed the expected slowdown in global oil demand growth as a result of the US/China trade war. US shale oil has not only introduced a cap on oil prices, it has also introduced a floor.