据今日油价8月7日报道，对股市来说，这是艰难的一周，但有一个板块受到的冲击比其他所有板块都要大——目前，唯一处于熊市的板块是能源板块，该板块本月初下跌逾6%，成为标普500指数中表现最差的板块之一。

尽管对投资者来说，这似乎已经是最糟糕的情况了，但一些分析师表示，全球能源市场实际上还将继续恶化。

据福布斯的一份报告称，国际贸易紧张局势带来的众多直接影响之一是原油价格的下跌，这在整个能源贸易领域掀起了波澜。油价立即下降了8%。石油生产商们的股票也直线下降, 其中一些下跌超过10%这是在过去三年里石油价格的最大单日跌幅。

局势只会越来越严峻。全球经纪及投资银行Oppenheimer&Co 技术分析Ari Wald周一在接受CNBC " Trading Nation "节目采访时表示，"这是一种看跌趋势，风险回报很低。"当油价上涨到与下跌时同样严重的程度时，石油行业并没有得到相应的回报。”CNBC以西德克萨斯原油为例，指出该地区的原油自2016年触底以来已经飙升了110%以上。在此期间，能源XLE交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）只上涨了19%。

Ari Wald接着表示，“该行业最大的股票埃克森美孚 (Exxon Mobile)预计也将继续下跌，这一系列事件肯定会对整个能源行业产生负面影响。埃克森美孚正从200天移动平均线的看跌斜率转向下行——我们把这定义为下降趋势的恢复。”他在接受CNBC采访时表示:“当你持有该行业最大的一只股票，在这个行业的一系列看跌趋势中扮演逆风的角色时，我们建议减持、避免、远离这个能源股。”

截至周二, 原油价格处于六周来的最低点。在美国银行预测在石油和能源市场好转之前，它们只会变得更糟，并警告可能出现30美元/桶的价格。

邹勤 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

The Worst Is Still To Come In Energy Markets

It’s been a rough week for the stock market across the board, but there is one sector that’s hurting more than all the rest. The only sector currently in a bear market is the energy sector, which fell more than 6 percent at the beginning of the month, making it the number-one worst performer on the S&P 500 Index.

While this already seems like a worst-case scenario for investors, some analysts say that things are actually going to continue to get worse for global energy markets.

One of the numerous immediate effects of the worsening relations between the United States and China was the deflated price of crude oil, which made waves throughout the whole energy trade sector. Just after Trump’s Thursday tweets announcing September 1st’s newly escalated tariffs against China, oil prices immediately dropped by 8 percent “with the stocks of oil producers also plummeting, some by more than 10 percent” in what was “the largest single-day drop in oil prices in the past three years” according to a report from Forbes.

And the surf is only going to get rougher going forward. Speaking to CNBC on Mondays edition of “Trading Nation,” head of technical analysis at worldwide brokerage and investment bank Oppenheimer Ari Wald said, “it’s a bearish trend and a poor risk-reward.? The sector has just not been rewarded when oil rises to the same degree it’s been slammed when oil falls.” CNBC uses West Texas crude to exemplify this trend, pointing out that the region’s crude oil “has surged more than 110 percent since bottoming in 2016. Over that period, the XLE energy ETF has added just 19 percent.”

Oppenheimer’s Wald went on to say that the sector’s largest stock Exxon Mobile is also projected to continue a downward trend, in a turn of events that is sure to have a negative impact on the energy sector as a whole. “Exxon Mobil [is] turning lower from the bearish slope of its 200-day moving average. We define that as a resumption of the downtrend,” said Wald. “When you’ve got the biggest stock in the sector acting as that headwind in what is a broad list of bearish trends in this sector, we recommend underweight, avoiding, stay away from energy,” he went on to tell CNBC.

As of Tuesday, crude was at a six-week low with Bank of America agreeing with forecasts that the oil and energy markets are only going to get worse before they get better, “warning that $30 per barrel could be over the horizon following China’s tough stance on sanctions,” according to CNBC. The report went on to underscore, soberingly, that “these are recessionary prices, if they occur.”