据今日油价8与9日报道，挪威能源咨询公司Rystad energy周五发布的一份报告显示，石油市场正从低迷走向更加低迷。

Rystad Energy上周五表示:“近期石油市场的发展让Rystad Energy的石油市场团队打了个寒颤，让我们对2020年上半年与国际海事组织(IMO)航运燃料新规有关的短期乐观看法提出了质疑。”

由于全球经济的不确定性以及美国和国际贸易紧张局势的升温，短期石油需求前景继续疲弱。

贸易环境的持续恶化，这给本已温和的增长数字增加了下行风险，可能会使2020年的日需求增长减少20万桶，至100万桶。

2019年全球油田产量的预测与上个月的石油市场更新报告基本持平，但在最新的更新报告中，2020年的油田产量（原油、凝析油和液化天然气）已上调50万桶/日至9760万桶/日，再次由美国，挪威、中国、还有加拿大主导。

今年到目前为止，欧佩克减产帮助提振了油价，但在欧佩克成员国之外，还有大量石油产量在上升。如果欧佩克不延长或深化明年的减产计划，2020年的经济增长预测将会变得非常罕见，在短短9个月的时间里，日产量将增加300万桶或更多。

由于供应过度增长，预计2020年石油价格将面临明显的下行风险。因为市场没有认识到IMO 2020对原油需求的积极影响。不过，如果国际海事组织对原油需求的影响低于预期，OPEC最早可能需要在2020年第一季度进行干预，以避免石油市场失衡。

Rystad仍然相信全球需求增长将会在2019年下半年改善,但最近国际贸易紧张局势升级以及全球整体疲软的制造业、出口和贸易指标，如果我们在短期内看不到贸易协议的话，可能会限制需求增长复苏。因此，市场可能会在2020年之前推低油价。目前，只有达到100万桶/天的大规模减产计划，才会在短期内造成市场供应前景偏紧。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Gloomy Oil Markets Just Got Gloomier

Recent developments in the oil market have sent cold shivers through Rystad Energy’s oil market team, calling into question our temporary bullish view for the first part of 2020 linked to the new IMO shipping fuel regulations.

“Economic recession risk and further escalation of the US-China trade war are key concerns in the near term. How long OPEC+ is willing to continue to manage production adds uncertainty,” says Bj?rnar Tonhaugen, head of oil market analysis at Rystad Energy.

The short-term oil demand outlook continues to be weak over global economic uncertainty and a simmering trade war between the US and China.

“This adds downside risk to already moderate growth numbers. Continued worsening of trade?environment could lower demand growth by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.0 million bpd in 2020,” Tonhaugen observed.

Our global field production forecast for 2019 is largely unchanged from last month’s Oil Market Update Report, but 2020 field production (crude, condensate and NGLs) has been revised up by 0.5 million bpd to 97.6 million bpd in this latest update, again led by the US and followed by Norway, China and Canada.

OPEC production cuts have helped buoy oil prices so far this year, but there is plenty of production ticking up outside of OPEC nations. The growth forecast for 2020 is quite exceptional, climbing by 3 million bpd or more over a period of just nine months, if OPEC+ does not extend or deepen their production cuts next year.

“We a see clear downside risk to 2020 prices due to excessive supply growth. We still believe the market does not recognize the positive effect on crude demand that IMO 2020 will bring. However, if the IMO effect on crude demand is less than expected, OPEC intervention may be needed as early as the first quarter of 2020 to avoid imbalances in the oil market,” Tonhaugen added.

Rystad Energy still believes demand growth globally will improve in the second half of 2019, but the recent exchange of US-China trade tariffs and overall weak manufacturing, exports and trade indicators elsewhere in the world could cap demand growth recovery if we see no trade deal in the immediate future. Hence, the market may send oil prices downward before 2020. At present, only large unplanned outages to the tune of 1.0 million bpd would create a somewhat tight market outlook in the near term.