据普氏能源资讯8月12日报道，标普全球cFlow周一分析显示，因炼油厂一直保持高产量，美国原油库存上周可能下降270万桶。

普氏能源资讯分析师预计，炼油厂上周的开采量将维持在96.4%，与产能持平。美国能源信息署数据显示，截至8月2日当周，美国原油净日产量为1780万桶，同比增长高于5年平均水平，主要受美国墨西哥湾沿岸和中西部地区原油产量增长的推动。

炼油利润率本月有所下滑，但仍足以鼓励炼油商保持高企的运行。普氏能源资讯(Platts)数据显示，8月迄今，USGC Mars焦化利润率平均为8.48美元/桶，WTI利润率平均为11.87美元/桶。

270万桶的原油供应将使美国原油库存达到4.362亿桶，较5年来平均水平高出2.5%左右。原油库存通常在每年的这个时候下降，进入秋季炼油厂维修季节，预计10月份将达到峰值。

EIA上周的数据显示，由于出口放缓，美国原油库存在截至8月2日的一周意外增加。库存的增加推动原油期货走低，尽管油价在上周末反弹。

尽管如此，对经济放缓的担忧最近令原油期货承压，尽管地缘政治紧张局势仍对原油期货构成支撑，但如果原油库存与预期相反，原油期货可能因缺乏新的看涨消息而再次下跌。

美国原油出口放缓让看涨者的担忧。上周美国对亚洲的原油出口量降至474万桶，低于截至8月2日当周的517万桶和截至7月5日当周的1002万桶，对欧洲、拉美和加拿大的原油出口也有所下降。尽管上周出口量有所下降，但预计对欧洲的基本负荷出口仍将保持稳定，美国向西北欧和地中海出口的轻质低硫原油将面临套利。

尽管流入亚洲的原油套利交易似乎已经开放，但超大规模油轮的供应已经收紧，对亚洲的出口依赖于船舶压载舱。目前，美国唯一能够完全装载VLCC的港口是路易斯安那州海上石油港口(LOOP)，根据cFlow的数据，该港口在过去四周内没有出口原油。

普氏分析师预计，上周美国汽油库存平均减少70万桶。分析师此前预计馏分油库存增加87万桶。随着炼油商保持高产量，汽油和馏分油的产量应该会保持强劲。美国的低失业率应有助于提振汽油需求，与此同时，汽油零售价格同比也应有所下降。然而，工业部门的放缓可能会拉动馏分油需求。国际贸易紧张局势导致的集装箱运输量下降，再加上钻井活动放缓，都表明馏分油消费量下降。

洪伟立 摘译自 普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

US crude inventories likely lower as refinery runs remain high

US crude oil inventories likely fell 2.7 million barrels last week, as refinery runs remained high, an S&P Global Platts analysis showed Monday.

Analysts polled by Platts were looking for refinery runs to be unchanged last week at 96.4% of capacity, on average.

Net crude inputs for the week ending August 2 were at 17.8 million b/d, up year-on-year, and above the five-year average, led by increases on the US Gulf Coast and Midwest, US Energy Information Administration data showed.

Refining margins have slipped this month, but are still strong enough to encourage refiners to keep runs high. The USGC Mars coking margin has averaged $8.48/b so far in August, and the WTI cracking margin has averaged $11.87/b, Platts data shows.

A 2.7-million barrel draw would put US crude inventories at 436.2 million barrels, roughly a 2.5% surplus to the five-year average.

Crude inventories typically decline this time of year heading into fall refinery maintenance season, which is expected to peak in October.

That maintenance is expected to be short-lived, with just 291,000 b/d expected to be down for maintenance in November.

Last week's EIA data showed an unexpected build in US crude inventories for the week ending August 2 because of a slowdown in exports. The stock build helped pull crude futures lower, although prices bounced back by the end of the week.

Still, concerns of an economic slowdown have weighed on crude futures lately, and while geopolitical tensions remain supportive, a lack of fresh bullish headlines could be setting crude futures up for another fall should crude inventories climb counter to expectations.

That US crude exports have slowed should be a concern for the bulls.

US crude exports to Asia fell to 4.74 million barrels last week, from 5.17 million barrels the week ending August 2, and 10.02 million barrels the week ending July 5, according to cFlow, Platts trade flow software.

Crude exports to Europe, Latin America and Canada were also lower last week, cFlow data shows.

Despite last week's dip, base load exports to Europe are expected to remain stable, with the arbitrage open for US light sweet crude into Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, according to Platts Analytics calculations.

While the crude arbitrage into Asia appears to be open, the supply of VLCCs has tightened, and exports to Asia are dependent on ballasters. Currently, the only US port able to fully load a VLCC is the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), which according to cFlow data has not exported crude over the past four weeks.

In refined products, analysts polled by Platts were looking for US gasoline inventories to have fallen by 700,000 barrels last week, on average. Analysts were looking for distillate stocks to have climbed by 870,000 barrels.

With refiners keeping runs high, production of both gasoline and distillate should remain strong. Low unemployment in the US should help bolster gasoline demand, as should lower year-on-year retail gasoline prices.

A slowdown in the industrial sector could pull on distillate demand, however. According to Platts Analytics, a drop in container traffic stemming from the US-China trade war, combined with slowing rig activity, points to lower distillate consumption.