据今日油价8月18日报道，欧佩克认为在2019年接下来的时间里，石油需求前景“有些悲观”，虽然短期内，供应仍然紧张。

在最新的报告中，欧佩克仅略微下调了对全球石油需求的预测，将2019年的预测下调至每日110万桶，。这一估计可能最终过于乐观。欧佩克表示，这一预测“受制于全球经济发展不确定性带来的下行风险的影响”。

值得注意的是，欧佩克表示，今年全球石油日产量可能增长197亿桶，远远超过需求增长。不过，由于美国、巴西、泰国和挪威的产量增长低于预期，这一数字较此前的估计减少了7.2万桶/天。

欧佩克表示，另一个令人担忧的迹象是：6月份，经合组织成员国石油库存较上月增加3,180万桶，高于5年平均水平，至6,700万桶。换句话说，就在欧佩克+召开会议，将减产期限再延长9个月之际，库存却在上升，这表明市场供过于求。

对欧佩克来说有一个略为乐观的消息，该组织将2019年和2020年的原油日需求量都上调了10万桶。不过，欧佩克表示，对其石油的需求将从今年的3070万桶/天降至2020年的2940万桶/天。

基于这些数字，如果不采取进一步的行动，欧佩克将在明年面临严重的供应过剩。该组织要么冒着市场再次下滑的风险，坚持目前的产量水平，要么就进一步削减产量。

接下来发生的事情基本上不在欧佩克的掌控之中。最近的石油价格波动几乎完全是人们对全球经济看法变化的结果。德国商业银行(Commerzbank)周五在一份报告中表示:“石油市场继续起伏不定，油价仍然很容易波动。在周三大幅下跌之后，布伦特原油(周四)再次遭受重创，在几个小时内下跌超过3%。目前，油价仍受全球经济预期的左右，正处在经济担忧和贸易争端可能很快结束的希望之间。”

美国周五公布的零售销售数据缓解了一些悲观情绪，但全球形势依然令人担忧，世界各地陆续公布的数据继续指向负面方向。就在上个星期，美国国债收益率曲线出现反转，阿根廷股市和货币崩盘，石油价格波动，人们普遍担心全球经济衰退。

尽管最近大部分数据都很健康，但是美国也不能幸免。例如，最近几周，华尔街分析师大幅下调了对企业第三季度收益的预期。伊士曼化工公司首席执行官Mark Costa在上个月举行的有关收益的电话会议上表示：“在4月和5月初，几乎每个人都觉得经济将在今年上半年变得更好,国际贸易紧张局势将得到解决,当然至少不会升级。而现在我们正处在一个完全不同的情况下，我认为下半年经济复苏的迹象并不多。”

最终，美国将难以摆脱全球经济放缓的影响。世界贸易组织(WTO)为第三季度描绘了一幅黯淡的图景，称贸易量“可能会继续疲软”。今年全球汽车行业也受到重创，印度和德国的汽车销量大幅萎缩。美国汽车行业也开始显示出一些紧张迹象。

油价的问题在于，随着供应增速超过需求，2020年的前景已经相当悲观——这是现在的基本情况。但经济衰退的可能性继续增加，这有可能使供应过剩变得更糟。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

OPEC Turns Bearish On Oil

OPEC sees a “somewhat bearish” outlook for the rest of 2019, even as supplies remain tight in the short run.

In its latest report, OPEC only slightly downgraded its forecast for global oil demand, lowering it to 1.10 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2019, down only a minor 0.04 mb/d from a month earlier. That estimate could end up being too optimistic, and OPEC itself said the forecast is “subject to downside risks stemming from uncertainties with regard to global economic development.”

Notably, OPEC said that global supply could grow by 1.97 mb/d this year, significantly outpacing demand growth. Still, that figure is down by 72,000 bpd from a previous estimate, due to lower-than-expected production growth in the U.S., Brazil, Thailand and Norway.

In another worrying sign of a brewing supply surplus, OPEC said that oil inventories in OECD countries rose by 31.8 million barrels in June from a month earlier, rising to 67 million barrels above the five-year average. In other words, just as OPEC+ was meeting to extend the production cuts for another 9 months, inventories were rising, an indication of an oversupplied market.

On a slightly positive note (for OPEC), the group revised up demand for its crude by 0.1 mb/d for both 2019 and for 2020. Still, it said that demand for its oil, often referred to as the “call on OPEC,” would drop to 29.4 mb/d in 2020, down from 30.7 mb/d this year.

Based on those numbers, OPEC+ is staring down a serious supply glut next year absent further action. The group can either stick with current production levels and risk another market downturn, or it can swallow further production cuts.

What happens next is largely outside of OPEC’s hands. Recent price movements are almost entirely the result of shifting sentiments regarding the global economy. “The yo-yoing on the oil market continues and the oil price remains highly prone to fluctuations. After sliding massively on Wednesday, Brent was hit hard once again [Thursday], shedding over 3% in a matter of hours,” Commerzbank said in a note on Friday. “The oil price currently remains at the mercy of expectations for the global economy, and is thus caught between economic concerns and hopes that the trade dispute might end soon.”

U.S. retail sales eased some concerns on Friday, but the global backdrop remains worrying, and a steady release of data from around the world continues to point in a negative direction. Just in the last week, there was the inverted yield curve for U.S. treasuries, a stock market and currency meltdown in Argentina, volatile oil prices, and widespread fears of a global economic recession.

Even the U.S. is not immune, despite mostly healthy data up until recently. For instance, Wall Street analysts have slashed their outlooks for corporate earnings for the third quarter in recent weeks. “Everyone in April and through the beginning of May thought that the economy was going to get better in the back half of the year, trade war was going to sort of settle, certainly not escalate,” Eastman Chemical Chief Executive Mark Costa said on an earnings call last month, as the WSJ reported. “And now we’re just in a very different world where I don’t think that’s true…There’s not a lot of signs of economic recovery coming in the second half.”

Ultimately, the U.S. will struggle to outrun a global slowdown. The World Trade Organization (WTO) painted a bleak picture for the third quarter, saying that trade volumes are “likely to remain weak.” The global auto sector has been hit hard this year, with a sharp contraction in?India and Germany. The U.S. auto industry is starting to show some signs of strain as well.

The problem for oil prices is that the outlook for 2020 is already pretty bearish, with supply growth outpacing demand. That’s the base case right now. But the odds of economic recession continue to grow, which threatens to make the supply overhang that much worse.