据普氏能源资讯8月22日报道，本周三，随着期货掉期交易的不断扩大，套利大门打开，西欧西北部的中间馏分油市场可能会看到来自亚洲和中东的新一波投资者。

新加坡10 ppm掉期和洲际交易所低硫汽油期货之间的价差是衡量欧洲和亚洲之间套利窗口的一个关键指标。普拉茨周二对EFS的评估为7.64美元/吨。

普氏能源资讯(Platts)数据显示，6月17日最新评估的价差较低，为每吨8.61美元。尽管阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普(ARA)交易中心的柴油需求不足、库存上升，但欧洲柴油市场仍在走弱。

一位交易员周三表示:“石油储量很大，现货供应充足，库存相当高，来自美国的石油最终将流入ARA。”目前苏伊士运河以东的入境数量预计将不断增加，加剧了这一疲弱局面。EFS正在走弱，这肯定会吸引更多的原油。

另一名交易员表示:“东/西口岸已经完全开放，柴油将在未来两个月左右涌入欧洲市场。”此外，由于一些炼油厂计划在9月和10月进行维护，短期前景喜忧参半，但由于炼油利润率较高，维护工厂的数量将低于最初预期。一位交易员表示:“维护费用看上去不像两个月前那么高。”

今年7月，炼油厂的维护工作繁重，现在利润率相当可观，因此(欧洲)秋季的维护工作将削减一半，预计将遵循美国9月至10月的计划进行（在欧洲，秋季炼油业务通常会在10月至11月出现转机）。

消息人士称，亚洲天然气市场在连续9个交易日上涨后，正“暂停休整”。

在中国需求不断增长和地区供应仍然紧张的背景下，这种乐观的势头由供不应求的供应导致，推动FOB新加坡现货汽油货物溢价在周二达到一年来的高点，即44美分/桶，然后回落至33美分/桶。

“(亚洲天然气)市场的需求正在好转，IMO 2020即将到来。人气看涨……但或许有点过头了，”一位驻新加坡的交易员表示。

普氏金融数据显示，衍生品市场也出现小幅回落，9月/ 10月前月价差周三收窄11美分/桶至13美分/桶。

新加坡中间馏分油库存上升，也表明亚洲汽油市场正在放缓。截至8月14日当周，馏分油库存从七周低点反弹至1,096万桶，较一周前增长10.8%。这促使一些业内人士密切关注周四晚些时候发布的下一份库存报告，以获取进一步的定价线索。

王佳晶 摘译自 普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

Gasoil EFS weakens despite mounting European stocks; Asian strength pauses

The northwest Europe middle distillate market could see a fresh wave of arrivals from Asia and the Middle East as the arbitrage gates swung open Wednesday amid a widening Exchange of Futures for Swaps.

The front-month September EFS -- the difference between Singapore 10 ppm swaps and ICE low sulfur gasoil futures, and a key measure of the arbitrage window between Europe and Asia -- was assessed at minus $8.03/mt at the Asian close Wednesday. Platts had assessed the EFS at minus $7.64/mt on Tuesday.

The spread was last assessed lower on June 17, at minus $8.61/mt, Platts data showed.

This dip in the EFS comes despite a weakening European diesel market as traders spoke of a lack of demand and rising stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub.

"There is a lot of oil, it is heavy on prompt, inventories are pretty high and oil from the US is going to end up in ARA," a trader said Wednesday.

This weakness is now being compounded by expectations of rising arrivals from the East of Suez, traders said.

"The EFS is weakening, which will attract more barrels for sure," the trader added.

Another trader said "the East/West has blown wide open, diesel will get poured into Europe right, left and center in the next two months".

Adding to that, the short-term outlook is mixed as some refineries were scheduled to undergo maintenance in September and October, but fewer than initially expected due notably to good refining margins.

"Maintenance doesn't nearly look as big as it looked two months ago," a trader said.

"In July, refinery maintenance was heavy, now margins are decent, so the [European] autumn maintenance will be cut in half and expected to follow US schedule of September-October." In Europe, autumn refinery turnarounds usually take place in October-November.

Looking east, sources said the Asian gasoil market was "pausing for a breather", after chalking up gains for nine straight trading sessions.

This upbeat momentum led by a tighter-than-expected supply on the back of rising Chinese demand and against a backdrop of still-tight regional supplies propelled the FOB Singapore spot gasoil cargo premium to a year-to-date high of plus 44 cents/b on Tuesday, before retreating to 33 cents/b the next day.

"[Asian gasoil] market is seeing better demand and IMO 2020 is coming. Sentiment is bullish ... but perhaps a bit overdone," a trader based in Singapore said.

The slight setback was also evident in the derivatives market with the front month September/October intermonth spread narrowing 11 cents/b to plus 13 cents/b on Wednesday, Platts data showed.

Rising middle distillate inventories in Singapore also pointed to a slowing Asian gasoil market.

Enterprise Singapore data showed that middle distillate stocks rebounded from a seven-week low during the week ended August 14 to 10.96 million barrels, up 10.8% from a week ago.

This prompted some industry sources to keep a watchful eye on the next inventory report due later Thursday, for further pricing cues.