据彭博社8月27日报道，即将出台的航运环境法规推动燃油利润率大幅下降，这开始对重油造成影响。

在新标准于明年1月生效之前，通常用于制造船舶燃油等污染产品的含硫量较高的石油的价值正在下降。国际海事组织的规则，即IMO 2020，将强制要求使用更清洁的替代品，如汽油或低硫燃料油。

IMO 2020促使迪拜原油在亚洲市场的利润率大幅下降，从7月底的5.47美元溢价降至8月14日的折价10.16美元。这意味着对重油的需求正在下降。伊拉克周三出售了10月份装运的一艘巴士拉重质原油(Basrah Heavy)，价格仅为一周前最后一次出售的三分之一。

行业咨询公司FGE资深石油分析师Senthil Kumaran表示:“燃料油价差的大幅减少已开始渗透到重质原油市场。但就下降的程度而言，似乎仍存在脱节。”

目前的市场动态与IMO 2020实施之前的市场预期一致。然而，在6月和7月，高硫燃料油价格出现了令人意外的飙升，原因是由于升级工程导致轻型燃料产量上升，导致了暂时性供应短缺。

虽然heavy-sweet Van Gogh的现货价差也有所下降，但由于其含硫量较低，澳大利亚品级相对于伦敦布伦特原油期货价格的溢价仍受到支撑。这是因为它可以混合制成符合IMO 2020标准的燃料。

桑托斯公司(Santos Ltd.)上周以每桶8美元至8.30美元的溢价出售了一批10月份装船的原油，较布伦特原油期货合约的溢价为每桶8美元至8.30美元，低于该公司最初预计的13.70美元或更高的溢价。

交易员们表示，由于中国买家的需求乐观，9月和10月一些西非品级相对于地区基准也有所上升。安哥拉的Cabinda和Nemba在精炼后往往会产出更多的汽油，这提振了对这些级别原油的购买兴趣。

FGE在一份报告中表示，自7月初以来，中国的利润率一直在提高，促使独立炼油商加大对9月和10月到港货物的原油采购。该行业顾问表示，安哥拉品种的需求因此有所回升，导致溢价飙升。

邹勤 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Heavy Oil Premiums Shrink as Asian Fuel Oil Profits Collapse

A plunge in fuel oil margins driven by impending environmental rules for shipping is beginning to take its toll on heavier grades of crude.

The value of sludgier varieties of oil, typically used to make dirty products such as fuel oil to power ships, is eroding before the standards that take effect in January. International Maritime Organization rules, known as IMO 2020, will mandate the use of cleaner alternatives like gasoil or very low-sulfur fuel oil.

IMO 2020 has spurred a plunge in profit margins from turning Dubai crude into fuel oil in Asia from a premium of $5.47 at the end of July to a discount of $10.16 on Aug. 14. That’s translating into waning demand for viscous oil, with Iraq selling an October-loading shipment of Basrah Heavy, a heavy-sour grade, on Wednesday at a premium of only a third of the last sale a week earlier.

“The plunge in fuel oil cracks has started to penetrate into the heavy crude market,” said Senthil Kumaran, a senior oil analyst at industry consultant FGE. “But there still seems to be a disconnect in terms of the extent of declines.”

The current market dynamics are in-line with market expectations ahead of IMO 2020. In June and July, however, high-sulfur fuel oil enjoyed a surprising surge in prices that stemmed from a temporary supply shortage due to upgrading works that led to a rise in output of lighter types of fuels.

While the spot differential for the heavy-sweet Van Gogh has also fallen, the Australian grade’s premium to London’s Dated Brent price remains supported due to its low sulfur content. That’s because it can be blended to make fuel that’s IMO 2020-compliant.

Santos Ltd. sold a cargo for October loading last week at a premium of between $8 and $8.30 a barrel over Dated Brent, lower than the company’s initial expectations for a premium of $13.70 or more.

Some West African grades loading in September and October have also been rising in relation to regional benchmarks due to healthy demand from Chinese buyers, say the traders. Angola’s Cabinda and Nemba tend to yield more gasoil when refined, lifting buying interest for the grades.

Chinese margins have been improving since early July, prompting independent refiners to ramp up their crude purchases for cargoes arriving in September and October, FGE said in a note. Demand for Angolan varieties has picked up as a result, leading to a spike in premiums, the industry consultant said.