据今日油价8月26日报道，美国能源行业将成为国际贸易紧张局势下，受打击最严重的行业之一，这是显而易见的。然而，随着贸易紧张局势的继续，影响的程度现在才变得越来越明显，因为一些公司发现，它们雄心勃勃的液化天然气项目很难获得资金。

据美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)数据显示，由于美国天然气产量下降，许多公司可能会因国际贸易紧张局势而将新液化天然气产能的最终投资决定推迟到明年。彭博社(Bloomberg)报道称，这些公司包括Tellurian和NextDecade，以及其他专注于液化天然气的公司。

美银分析师在最近给客户的一份报告中写道：“考虑到目前的定价阻力，贸易紧张局势缓解缺乏解决方案，加上近几个月的最低合同公告，我们认为推迟的可能性很高。”

不过，当谈到美国所谓的第二波液化天然气项目可能遇到的障碍时，这些公司自己并不太想谈ClipperData的数据。

然而，国际贸易紧张局势的另一个方面对美国液化天然气生产商的损害更大。为了确保这些通常耗资数十亿美元的项目获得资金，美国企业需要做出长期承诺，让银行相信这些项目是可行的。中国买家是这些长期合约的自然选择，但随着中国投资者在贸易紧张局势期间回避美国项目，情况已不再如此。

雪上加霜的是，天然气价格环境越来越不利，可能为最终投资决定的推迟提供理由。在美国国内需求停滞、越来越多的国家正在满足全球需求之际，美国能源公司却在生产过多的天然气。液化天然气项目也受到天然气价格走低的影响。正如加拿大皇家银行(RBC)最近预测的那样，今年天然气市场将继续供过于求，这种供过于求的局面也将延续到2020年。

美国液化天然气出口被誉为双重福音:一方面，扩大美国企业在液化天然气市场的全球影响力，另一方面，缓解页岩油气行业增长导致的持续天然气供应过剩。这一规模从2013年的29.2亿立方英尺增加到去年的10830亿立方英尺。现在，它的进一步增长可能使美国在2024年成为世界上最大的液化天然气出口国，但这种增长正面临威胁。

与此同时，大型石油公司在美国以外地区也在推进自己的液化天然气项目。莫桑比克是一个热点地区，巴布亚新几内亚也是。他们正在增加产能，最终将与美国独立石油公司争夺市场份额。对于他们来说，这是又一个令人头疼的问题。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

A Perfect Storm Is Brewing For US LNG

That the U.S. energy industry would be among those hardest hit by a full-blown trade war between Washington and Beijing was a no-brainer. Yet the extent of the fallout as the war continues is only becoming evident now, as some companies find it hard to secure the funding for their ambitious LNG projects.

According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, a number of companies may delay their final investment decisions on new LNG capacity to next year because of U.S.-Chinese trade tensions. Bloomberg reports these include Tellurian and NextDecade, as well as other companies focused exclusively on LNG.

“We see delays as likely given current pricing headwinds, no resolution yet on the U.S.-China trade war, and minimal contract announcements in recent months,” BofA analysts wrote in a recent note to clients, referring to Tellurian’s US$28-billion Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana.

While the companies themselves are not too talkative when it comes to possible obstacles to the so-called second wave of LNG projects in the U.S., the facts are not encouraging: China has imported no U.S. LNG since March, according to data from ClipperData. Bloomberg data is even gloomier: it suggests no U.S. LNG has made its way into China since February. No wonder, since Beijing first imposed a 10-percent tariff on the commodity and then upped this to 25 percent in retaliation for U.S. tariffs.

Yet there is another aspect of the trade war that is more damaging to U.S. LNG producers. To secure funding for these projects that typically cost billions, U.S. companies need long-term commitments to convince banks the projects are viable. Chinese buyers were the natural choice for these long-term commitments but this is no longer the case as Chinese investors shun U.S. projects amid the war.

To add insult to injury, the gas price context is increasingly unfavourable and could add justification to delays in final investment decisions. U.S. energy companies are producing too much gas at a time when domestic demand is stalling and global demand is being met by a growing number of countries. LNG projects are also suffering the effects of low gas prices. As RBC recently forecast, this year, the natural gas market will remain oversupplied, and this oversupply will extend into 2020 as well.

U.S. LNG exports were hailed as a double blessing: on the one hand, expanding U.S. companies global presence on the LNG market and on the other, relieving a persistent natural gas glut resulting from the growth of the shale oil and gas industry. The size of this relief grew from just 2.92 billion cu ft in 2013 to 1,083 billion cu ft last year. Now, its further growth that could turn the United States into the world’s top LNG exporter by 2024 is under threat.

Meanwhile, Big Oil majors, which are a lot more resilient to any single segment of the energy industry, are forging ahead with their own LNG projects outside the U.S. Mozambique is a hot spot and so is Papua New Guinea. They are adding capacity that would ultimately compete for market share with U.S. independents. That’s just one more headache-generating problem for these independents to deal with.