据今日油价9月3日报道，随着众多油气专业人士齐聚阿伯丁，参加为期两年的SPE 欧洲海上油气大会暨展览会，英国的海上油气繁荣景象正准备适时回归。

Rystad Energy预计，到2022年，英国将批准新一轮油田开发项目。预测未来三年，英国可能会对多达38个新的海上项目达成最终投资决定(FIDs)，如果英国未来的潜在资源不低于预期，这将意味着226亿美元的绿地支出。

Rystad Energy油田服务研究主管Audun Martinsen表示：“如果运营商的计划按预期执行, 预计未来三年将有38个潜在的项目承诺，而从近期英国北海服务公司的成绩来看，可以为我们提供一些启示。”

德尼西布（TechnipFMC）是近年来英国市场上顶级的服务提供商，其次是Wood和斯伦贝谢(Schlumberger)。

由于英国项目批准速度将加紧步伐，Rystad Energy预计工程、采购、建筑和安装（EPCI）市场，在未来三年内将增长65%，而海底地震仪器、数据采集等市场预计将分别增长35%。预计维修和运营、油井服务和大宗商品以及钻井承包商的采购都将以较低的速度增长。

Martinsen在开幕日表示:“在经历了数年的艰难岁月后，英国海上油气市场可能终于准备再次焕发光芒。”

在经济低迷时期，英国海上绿地投资遭受重创，从2013年200亿美元的峰值降至2016年微不足道的5.5亿美元，进而导致该地区油田服务价格平均下跌27%。

Rystad Energy预计，英国今年的项目承诺数量将略有减少，然后在2020年大幅增加，2021年将再次大幅增加，届时我们预计将达到18个FIDs的新峰值，总价值93亿美元。我们预计，2022年批准的项目会少得多——只有7个左右——但其中包括一些重大项目开展，总体资本支出承诺仍将很大，预计为80亿美元。

Martinsen称:“最大的一项开发项目是Hurricane’s Lincoln项目，估计耗资54亿美元。不过，这个项目的进度可能会受到影响。今年年底前可能获批的最大项目是价值10亿美元的Siccar Point Cambo一期开发项目。”

邹勤 摘译自 今日油价

【编注】 绿地支出（greenfield expenditure 绿地投资支出）指对新建项目区块的投资，是指跨国公司等投资主体在东道国境内依照东道国的法律设置的部分或全部资产所有权归外国投资者所有的企业。新建投资会直接导致东道国生产能力、产出和就业的增长。绿地投资作为国际直接投资中获得实物资产的重要方式是源远流长的。早期跨国公司的海外拓展业务基本上都是采用这种方式。绿地投资有两种形式：一是建立国际独资企业，其形式有国外分公司，国外子公司和国外避税地公司；二是建立国际合资企业，其形式有股权式合资企业和契约式合资企业。

原文如下：

UK Offshore Oil & Gas Is About To Boom Again

As tens of thousands oil and gas professionals gather in Aberdeen for the biannual SPE Offshore Europe conference & exhibition, the UK offshore scene is poised for a timely comeback.

Rystad Energy expects a new wave of UK field development projects to be sanctioned towards 2022. The independent energy research and consulting firm forecasts that final investment decisions (FIDs) could be reached on as many as 38 new UK offshore projects over the next three years, representing $22.6 billion in greenfield expenditure if UK prospective resources live up to expectations.

“If operators’ plans play out as intended, the 38 potential project commitments expected over the next three years will provide fertile ground for contractors, and a quick look at successful UK North Sea service companies from the recent past sheds some light on who may capture this growth in the near future,” says Audun Martinsen, head of oilfield services research at Rystad Energy.

TechnipFMC has been the top service provider in the UK market in recent years, measured in revenues, followed by Wood and Schlumberger.

With project sanctioning forecast to accelerate in the UK, Rystad Energy expects the EPCI market – engineering, procurement, construction and installation – to grow by 65% over the next three years, while the subsea and seismic markets are each forecast to expand by 35%. Maintenance & operations, well services & commodities, and drilling contractor purchases are each expected to grow at a more subdued rate.

“After several tough years, the sun may finally be ready to shine again on the UK offshore market,” Martinsen remarked on the opening day of Offshore Europe.

UK offshore greenfield investments were severely hit during the downturn, declining from a peak of $20 billion in 2013 to a paltry $550 million in 2016, and in turn causing oilfield service unit prices in the region to fall by 27% on average.

Rystad Energy expects the number of UK project commitments to shrink slightly this year before rising sharply in 2020 and again in 2021, when we forecast a new peak with about 18 FIDs worth a combined $9.3 billion. We expect to see far fewer projects sanctioned in 2022 – only around seven – but they include some major developments and the collective capex commitment should still be large, projected at $8 billion.

“The largest single development on the list is Hurricane’s Lincoln project, at an estimated $5.4 billion, albeit recognizing that its schedule could be hindered depending on the viability of its fractured basement reservoir,” Martinsen remarked. “The largest project likely to be sanctioned before the end of this year is the $1 billion first phase of Siccar Point’s Cambo development.”