据今日油价9月10日报道，全球经济疲软、石油需求增长放缓，加上美国页岩油产量不断增长，使得石油供过于求的说法成为今年媒体和分析师关注的焦点。然而，几年后，石油市场的最大担忧很可能是石油供应不足的问题，这可能推高油价。

持续的供过于求导致石油输出国组织将减产协议执行时间推迟至明年，在补充常规石油储备方面长期投资的不足，取代了人们对全球石油供应危机隐现的担忧。长期的供过于求和疲软的石油需求在今年的大部分时间里压低了油价。不过，油价走低，也开始对全球最大的页岩油供应国——美国的石油生产速度造成影响。

《Seeking Alpha》撰稿人Rob Pinkerton认为，美国的石油产量将在未来几年内增加，但可能在本世纪20年代初达到峰值。他表示，到2024年，美国页岩储层将开采出大部分可采储量，这将在全球石油供应中留下一个缺口，而只有新发现的常规海上资源才能在一定程度上填补这一缺口。

国际组织也将美国页岩油产量的峰值定在20年代——尽管大多数人预测将在2020年后期。欧佩克成员国的石油方面专业组织、分析师和主要国有石油公司几年来一直警告称，由于2014年油价暴跌后投资的减少，石油供应缺口可能在短短几年内就会扩大。

美国页岩油产量增长放缓，进一步说明全球供应紧缩将在5年甚至更短时间内到来，尽管欧佩克及其盟友目前正试图消除因需求增长担忧而导致的全球供应过剩问题。

国际能源署(IEA)最近将2019年的需求增长预期下调了10万桶/天，至110万桶/天。此前该机构发现，1月至5月的需求增长仅为52万桶/天，为2008年以来的最低增幅。

但国际能源署也预计，美国致密油产量将在2025年之前继续上升，并表示：“此后，按照我们目前对可开采资源的估计，产量将开始逐渐下降。”

到本世纪20年代中期，美国许多生产效率较高的地区将出现能源枯竭的迹象。国际能源署表示:“这意味着，2025年的钻井平台石油开采量将低于现在，因此需要完成更多的油井才能维持或提高产量。”

在最新的《世界石油展望》(World Oil Outlook)中，由于美国的致密油供应将迎来高峰，欧佩克预计非欧佩克国家的石油供应将在本世纪20年代末见顶。

另一方面，由于石化、卡车运输和航空产业的需求，全球石油消费将继续增长，至少在未来10年是如此。IEA在去年11月发布的《世界能源展望》中表示，石油行业将需要将已获批准的常规石油项目数量增加一倍，才能满足预期的增长。

IEA指出：“如果没有这样的投资回升，从今天到2025年，已经在以创纪录的速度扩张的美国页岩产量将不得不增加1000多万桶/天——这相当于再添加上俄罗斯七年来的全球供应量，而这将是一个史无前例的情况。”

随着美国页岩油生产量增长速度放缓，传统石油投资仍远低于五年前，供应缺口最早可能在本世纪20年代初出现。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Oil Markets Face Serious Risk Of New Supply Crunch

Weakening global economy and slowing oil demand growth, coupled with growing U.S. shale production, have pushed the oil glut narrative to the top of the media and analyst attention this year.

In a few years’ time, however, the top concern on the oil market could very well be insufficient oil supply that could drive prices higher.

The persistent oversupply led to OPEC rolling over the production cuts into next year and replaced concerns about a looming global oil supply crunch due to chronic underinvestment in replenishing conventional oil reserves.

The stubborn oversupply and faltering demand have depressed oil prices for most of this year. The lower oil prices, however, have also started to challenge the growth pace of the largest source of oil supply increase in the world—U.S. shale.

American oil production is set to increase over the next few years, but it could peak in the early 2020s, Seeking Alpha contributor Rob Pinkerton argues. According to oil industry professional Pinkerton, U.S. shale will have drilled out most of the recoverable reserves by 2024, leaving a gap in global oil supply that only newly discovered conventional offshore resources can—to some extent—fill in.

International organizations also put the peak of U.S. shale oil production at some point in the 2020s—although most predict it will be the late 2020s. Organizations, analysts, and major national oil companies of OPEC nations have been warning for a few years that a gap in supply could open up in just a few years as a result of low investments after the oil price crash of 2014.

The slowdown of U.S. shale production growth adds to the narrative that a global supply crunch is coming in half a decade or even sooner, even if OPEC and allies are currently trying to eliminate a global glut amid demand growth concerns.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has recently revised its demand growth estimates for 2019, down by 100,000 bpd to 1.1 million bpd, after seeing that between January and May demand growth was just 520,000 bpd, the lowest increase for the period since 2008.

But the IEA also expects U.S. tight oil production to continue rising through 2025, and “Thereafter, with our current estimate for recoverable resources, production starts to fall gradually.”

Many of the most productive areas in the U.S. will show signs of depletion by the mid-2020s. “This means the average well drilled in 2025 is less productive than today and so a larger number of wells need to be completed to maintain or increase production,” the IEA says.

In its latest World Oil Outlook, OPEC sees non-OPEC supply peaking in the late 2020s, mainly because of expected U.S. tight oil supply peak.

On the other hand, global oil consumption will continue to increase, at least in the next decade, due to demand from petrochemicals, trucking, and aviation. The oil industry will need to double the number of approved conventional oil projects in order to meet the expected growth, the IEA said in its latest World Energy Outlook from November last year.

“Without such a pick-up in investment, US shale production, which has already been expanding at record pace, would have to add more than 10 million barrels a day from today to 2025, the equivalent of adding another Russia to global supply in seven years – which would be an historically unprecedented feat,” the Paris-based agency noted.

But with U.S. shale growth slowing down, and conventional oil investment still much lower than five years ago, a supply gap could open as soon as in the early 2020s.