据今日油价9月11日报道，雷斯塔能源周三表示，收入连续三年增长后，如果油价继续维持在目前的低位，油田服务市场将在2020年陷入衰退。

根据雷斯塔能源的数据显示，如果油价明年持平，那么明年油田服务公司的全球总收入将下降4％。

据能源咨询和商业情报公司估计，今年油田服务市场预计将增长2%，达到6470亿美元。但雷斯塔能源警告称，如果油价保持在每桶布伦特原油60美元左右，明年的收入可能会降至6210亿美元左右，从而结束了连续三年的收入增长。

雷斯塔能源油田服务研究主管奥登·马廷森(Audun Martinsen)在一份有关该行业的最新报告中表示，油价走低会让2020年石油服务市场负增长。他补充道，对于供应商来说，这意味着三年的增长历史将结束，不管你看的是哪个市场。

雷斯塔能源称，油田服务收入的最大拖累将是美国页岩行业，预计明年将收缩6％。由于公司削减勘探活动以削减这些油价的成本，海上油田服务采购量下降1％。

Martinsen表示，这种新的市场观点与我们先前预测的2020年油价估计在70美元左右形成了鲜明的对比。在该油价下，服务市场预计将增长2％，受到海上和页岩的支撑。 然而，石油市场的下行风险越来越大，我们可能在2020年面临更多不利因素。

雷斯塔能源称，截至2021年，油田服务市场预计将从目前预期的2020年悲观状态中复苏。

最近几个月，美国页岩区已经开始支撑长期疲软的油价，钻井工人和油田服务公司一直在削减员工和减少预算，以应对北美水力压裂增长的放缓。

郝芬 译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Rystad: Low Prices To Send Oil Services Market Into Recession

Following three consecutive years of growth, the oilfield services market is set to slip into recession in 2020 if oil prices stay at their current low levels, Rystad Energy said on Wednesday.

According to Rystad Energy, total global revenue of oilfield services firms will decline by 4 percent in 2020 if oil prices stay flat next year.

This year, the oilfield services market is expected to grow by 2 percent to US$647 billion, the energy consulting and business intelligence firm has estimated. But if oil prices stay at around US$60 a barrel Brent Crude, the revenues would likely drop to some US$621 billion next year, putting an end to three years of revenue growth in a row, Rystad Energy warns.

“Lower oil prices call for negative growth in the service market in 2020,” Audun Martinsen, head of oilfield services research at Rystad Energy, said in an update on the sector.

“For suppliers, this means that a three-year growth story will come to an end regardless of which market segment you look at,” Martinsen added.

The biggest drag on oilfield service revenues would be the U.S. shale industry as it is expected to contract by 6 percent next year. Offshore oilfield services purchases are seen down by 1 percent as companies would cut back on exploration activity to cut costs at these oil prices, Rystad Energy said.

“This new market view stands in stark contrasts to what we previously forecasted when oil price estimates stood around $70 for 2020. At that oil price, the service market was expected to grow by 2%, held up by offshore and shale. However, downside risks have been mounting in the oil market, and we could face additional headwinds in 2020,” Martinsen said.

As of 2021, the oilfield services market is expected to recover from what is now expected a downbeat year 2020, Rystad Energy said.

In recent months, the U.S. shale patch has started bracing for an extended period of weak oil prices, and drillers and oilfield services firms have been cutting staff and reducing budgets to weather the slowdown in North America’s fracking growth.