据海事新闻9月14日消息称，能源研究公司雷斯塔能源表示，美国页岩供应量将在2030年左右达到峰值，约为每日1450万桶。

过去10年，来自美国二叠纪(Permian)等页岩区块的原油，已从微不足道的贡献者，成长为一家上游巨擘，重塑了页岩行业和石油市场。

就在9年前，美国轻质致密油(LTO)还不到全球石油供应的1%。如今，美国LTO占全球石油供应总量的近10%，预计这一比例还将继续上升。

雷斯塔能源页岩上游分析团队产品经理Sonia Mlada Passos表示:“按照我们的基本价格设想，美国LTO的供应量应在2030年左右达到峰值，约为每日1450万桶。”

假设西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格持平于每桶45美元，雷斯塔能源估计LTO供应量将在2030年再次达到峰值，但不会超过1150万桶/天。如果我们的预测和其他机构一样低，油价将不得不大幅下跌。

基于我们的分析，未来美国WTI油价需要低至每桶42美元，2030年美国LTO供应量将达到EIA在其参考案例中提出的水平。”

市场一致认为，二叠纪盆地将成为2040年美国石油供应的主导部分。然而，不同的是对供应将有多大的看法。

Passos 表示：“我们的预测是最乐观的——在雷斯塔能源的基准价格情景中，我们预计二叠系的产量到2040年将增长至每日750万桶左右。”

曹海斌 摘译自 海事新闻

原文如下：

US Shale to Peak at 14.5Mbpd in 2030

US shale supply will peak at approximately 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) around 2030, said the energy research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy.

In the past decade, crude oil coming from shale patches such as the Permian in the US has grown from a negligible contributor to an upstream behemoth, reshaping the industry and the oil market.

US Light Tight Oil (LTO) represented less than 1% of global oil supply just nine years ago. Today, US LTO represents close to 10% of total global oil supply, a percentage which is expected to continue its ascent going forward.

“Under our base-case price scenario, US LTO supply should reach its peak at approximately 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) around 2030,” says Sonia Mladá Passos, a product manager on Rystad Energy’s Shale Upstream Analytics team.

Assuming a flat $45 per barrel (bbl) WTI scenario, Rystad Energy estimates that LTO supply would once again peak in 2030, but at a more modest 11.5 million bpd. For our prediction to be as low as other institutions’, the oil price would have to drop sharply.

“Based on our analysis, the oil price would need to be as low as $42 per barrel WTI going forward for the 2030 US LTO supply to be as low as EIA presents in their Reference case,” Passos remarked.

There is a consensus in the market that the Permian Basin will be the dominant part of 2040 US oil supply. What varies, however, is the view on how large that supply is going to be.

“Our forecast is the most bullish – in Rystad Energy’s base case price scenario we expect Permian’s production to grow to around 7.5 milion bpd by 2040,” Passos remarked.