据路透社伦敦报道，美国6月份原油产量仍接近创纪录水平，但由于油价下跌，自去年年底以来，美国原油产量增长明显放缓，而这一放缓将延续到2020年。

美国能源信息署（EIA）周四公布的数据显示，6月份原油日平均产量为1210万桶，与5月和4月的创纪录水平基本持平。

然而，由于自2018年第四季度开始以来石油价格下跌，页岩繁荣正在放缓，预计减速将持续到2019年的剩余时间和2020年。

EIA在9月发布的《石油供应月报》显示，在4月至6月的三个月里，美国石油产量较上年同期增加了近160万桶/日，增幅为15%。

但是，石油产量年增长率已从2018年8月至10月的最高水平200万桶/日（增幅为21%）放缓，在经历了2018年和2017年全年强劲增长之后，今年前六个月的产量大体持平。

今年上半年创纪录的产量是对钻探热潮以及2018年中期高企的原油价格的延迟反应。

价格通常会在大约12个月的时间内影响产量，因为需要时间来承包钻机，将其运到现场，钻探和完成油井，并将其连接到管道收集系统。

因此，目前的产量反映了去年的高油价，当时的WTI价格高于每桶65美元，甚至每桶70美元，而不是目前的低价格，目前WTI的交易价格为每桶55美元。

滞后响应

在2019年上半年，全球消费增长速度为2014年以来和2012年之前的最低水平，美国的高产出持续存在，导致了严重的供过于求。

随着生产增长超过消费，到年中，库存增加，价格面临新的压力，需要对消费，特别是生产进行必要的调整。

随着2018年第四季度以来原油价格的下跌，钻井率和完工率将逐步下降，到2019年底，尤其是2020年，产量增长将有所放缓。

EIA预测，截至2019年12月的一年中，美国石油产出将增加88万桶/日，增幅为7.3%，截至2020年12月的一年中，将增加58万桶/日，增幅为4.5%。

EIA在9月份《短期能源展望》显示，这将大大低于截至2018年12月的一年中210万桶/日（增幅为20.7%）的增长。

美国石油产量增长放缓，意味着原油价格在50-60美元/桶之间，这可能是全球市场再平衡进程的重要组成部分。

美国的产油商、欧佩克成员国以及欧佩克+集团中的盟友对目前的油价表现出明显的不满。

但在全球经济表现不佳导致消费增长乏力之际，降低价格是减缓生产增长的一个必要信号。

詹晓晶 摘自 路透社

原文如下：

U.S. oil production remains near record high: Kemp

U.S. crude production remained close to a record level in June but growth has slowed significantly since the end of last year in response to lower oil prices and the slowdown is set to extend into 2020.

Crude output averaged 12.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, essentially unchanged from record levels in May and April, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published on Thursday.

Nevertheless, the shale boom is moderating in response to the decline in oil prices since the start of the fourth quarter of 2018, and the deceleration is expected to continue through the remainder of 2019 and 2020.

Output in the three months between April and June was up by almost 1.6 million bpd (15%) compared with a year earlier (“Petroleum supply monthly”, EIA, September 2019).

But annual growth has slowed from a peak of 2.0 million bpd (21%) in August-October 2018, and production was broadly flat during the first six months of the year after strong growth throughout 2018 and 2017.

Record output in the first half of the year is the delayed response to the drilling boom and period of very high prices in the middle of 2018.

Prices typically affect production with a delay of about 12 months — given the time needed to contract rigs, move them to the site, drill and complete wells, and hook them up to pipeline gathering systems.

So current output reflects high prices last year, when WTI prices were above $65 and even $70 per barrel, rather than the much lower prices that are currently prevailing, with WTI trading at $55.

LAGGED RESPONSE

The persistence of high U.S. output in first half of 2019, when global consumption was growing at the slowest rate since 2014 and before that 2012, contributed to significant oversupply.

With production growth outstripping consumption through mid-year, inventories rose and prices have come under renewed pressure to enforce the required adjustments of consumption and especially production.

As the fall in prices since the fourth quarter of 2018 works it way through to lower drilling and completion rates, production growth should moderate toward the end of 2019 and especially in 2020.

The EIA forecasts output will rise by 880,000 bpd (7.3%) in the year to December 2019 and another 580,000 bpd (4.5%) in the year to December 2020.

But that would be significantly down from the increase of 2.1 million bpd (20.7%) in the year to December 2018 (“Short-Term Energy Outlook”, EIA, September 2019).

Much slower growth in U.S. production, implying WTI prices in the $50-60 per barrel range, is likely to be an essential part of the global market rebalancing process.

Oil producers in the United States as well as the members of OPEC and its allies in the wider OPEC+ group show evident frustration with prices at current levels.

But lower prices are a necessary signal to slow production increases at a time when consumption growth is lacklustre owing to the poor performance of the global economy.