据11月13日Hydrocarbon Processing报道，欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德巴金多最近表示，明年，美国页岩油供应增长可能放缓，2020年的石油市场可能出现意外增长的新迹象。

巴金多称，到2020年，石油供应量可能会向下修正，特别是美国页岩油的供应量。他补充道，一些美国页岩油企业预计日产量仅增长30-40万桶左右。

他对记者表示：“原因来自企业本身，这些企业认为欧佩克的数据相对来说更为乐观，因此他们预计减速会加剧。我们可能会看到非欧佩克成员国的石油供应在2020年出现大幅调整，尤其是来自美国页岩盆地的供应。这有助于减少欧佩克及盟国（如俄罗斯）在努力抑制产量和支持市场方面面临的阻力。”

目前布伦特原油的交易价格为每桶62美元，低于许多欧佩克国家经济盈亏平衡的水平。

石油生产大国沙特阿拉伯向欧佩克保证，沙特阿美的上市不会影响沙特在欧佩克中承担的义务或对石油产量作出的承诺。

巴金多相信，欧佩克及其盟国将在2020年继续达成限制石油供应的协议，全球经济的基本面依然强劲。

上周，巴金多曾表示，明年的市场前景可能有上行潜力，似乎淡化了进一步减产的必要性。

王佳晶 摘译自 Hydrocarbon Processing

原文如下：

OPEC chief says rival oil supply could underperform

U.S. shale oil supply growth could slow down next year, OPEC’s secretary general said in his latest indication that the oil market in 2020 could surprise to the upside.

Mohammad Barkindo said there would likely be downward revisions of supply going into 2020 especially from United States shale, adding that some U.S. shale oil firms see output growing by only around 300,000-400,000 barrels per day.

“This is coming from the companies themselves, who are saying our (OPEC’s) numbers are more optimistic,” he told reporters. “We are more optimistic than them. They expect a sharper deceleration.”

“We are likely to see sharp revisions of non-OPEC supply going into 2020 particularly from the shale basins in the United States,” he said.

That would reduce a headwind that OPEC and its allies such as Russia have faced in their efforts to curb output and support the market.

Brent crude is trading at $62 a barrel, lower than the level many OPEC countries’ economies need to break even.

Barkindo also said that Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer and de facto leader, has reassured the exporting group that a stock market listing of oil giant Aramco would not affect the kingdom’s role in the group or commitment to output deals.

He said he was confident that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies would continue with a supply curb agreement in 2020 and that the fundamentals of the global economy remained strong.

Last week, Barkindo said the market outlook for next year may have upside potential, appearing to downplay any need to cut output more deeply.