据世界石油新闻11月14日消息称，国际能源署表示明年全球石油市场可能保持“平静”，因为欧佩克(OPEC)以外的产量飙升和高库存使消费者能够轻松获得供应。

该机构在其月度报告中表示，在欧佩克以外的石油供应国—由美国、巴西、挪威和圭亚那的推动—到2020年石油供应每天将增加230万桶，几乎是全球石油需求增长的两倍。预计原油日产量将比上个月增加约10万桶。

近几个月来，伦敦市场的油价一直稳定在每桶60美元附近，只是在9月份沙特阿拉伯能源设施遭受前所未有的袭击后，油价才出现短暂飙升。

IEA总部位于巴黎，主要为大多数主要经济体提供能源政策建议，该机构表示：“供应充足的市场和高库存支撑了这种平静。这可能会持续到2020年，因为非欧佩克国家将大幅提高产量。”

该报告显示，因此，今年已经减产以防止出现过剩的欧佩克国家，目前的日产量约为170万桶，高于明年上半年的需求。

欧佩克及其合作伙伴将于12月5日至6日举行会议，讨论明年的产量水平，不过迄今为止，他们还没有表现出愿意进一步减产，以避免新的供过于求。

IEA表示：“可能在明年上半年建立的庞大供应缓冲，并不能为下个月初在维也纳开会的欧佩克+部长提供一丝慰藉。然而，持续供应充足的市场将为脆弱的全球经济提供支持。”

第三季度，发达国家的石油库存累计约900万桶。

曹海斌 摘译自 世界石油新闻

原文如下：

IEA sees calm global oil market in 2020 as new supplies soar

Global oil markets are likely to remain “calm” next year as soaring production outside OPEC and high inventories keep consumers comfortably supplied, the International Energy Agency said.

Supplies outside OPEC -- driven by the U.S., Brazil, Norway and Guyana -- will increase by 2.3 million barrels a day in 2020, almost twice the expansion in world oil demand, the agency said in its monthly report. The growth estimate is about 100,000 barrels a day higher than last month.

Oil prices have remained steady near $60 a barrel in London for several months, surging only briefly in response to an unprecedented attack on Saudi Arabia’s energy facilities in September.

“The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories,” said the Paris-based agency, which advises most major economies on energy policy. “This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production” significantly.

As a result, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries -- which has cut production this year to prevent a surplus -- is currently pumping about 1.7 million barrels a day more than will be needed in the first half of next year, the report showed.

OPEC and its partners will meet on Dec. 5 to 6 to consider next year’s output levels, though they’ve so far indicated little desire to make the deeper cuts that would be needed to avert a new oversupply.

“The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month,” the IEA said. “However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.”

Oil inventories in developed nations accumulated by about 9 million barrels during the third quarter.