据油气新闻网站11月14日阿布扎比报道 欧佩克秘书长Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo在阿布扎比国际石油展览会（Adipec）上对行业领袖表示，2018年至2040年间，全球一次能源总需求将增长25%，其中石油和天然气有望满足大部分需求。

他还表示，石油和天然气将继续在实现可持续经济发展和减少“能源贫困”方面发挥核心作用，并提供2019年欧佩克《世界石油展望》的数据。

他说，增长将由发展中国家不断增长的需求推动，在这些国家，近10亿人仍然无法获得电力，30亿人无法获得清洁的烹饪燃料。

Barkindo 在演讲中说：“所有形式的能源都将需要以可持续的方式满足这一不断扩大的需求。”

“以百分比计算，可再生能源的增长幅度最大，包括对欧佩克成员国（尤其是阿联酋）投资的大幅扩张。天然气在替代煤炭（用于发电）方面增长最大，而石油在能源结构中所占份额最大。”

“事实上，预计到2040年，油气总量仍将占能源结构的50%以上。”

他表示，来自中国、印度和其他新兴市场的需求比例将继续增长，尤其是来自亚太市场的需求。与2018年的数据相比，到2040年非欧佩克的需求将增加2140万桶/日，而欧佩克预计将减少960万桶/日。预计石油总需求将达到1.106亿桶，预计上游、中游和下游需要10.6万亿美元的投资。

不过，他指出，重要的是必须在减少碳排放的范围内实现增长，而且必须开发新技术，以确保该行业能够促进经济增长，同时也有助于限制气候变化。

王磊 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

Oil & gas to meet global energy demand in 2040: Opec

There will be a 25 per cent increase in total primary energy demand worldwide between 2018 and 2040, with oil and gas expected to meet most of this demand, Opec secretary general Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo told industry leaders at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (Adipec).

Oil and gas will continue to play a central role in achieving sustainable economic development and reducing ‘energy poverty’, he added, presenting data from the 2019 Opec World Oil Outlook.

He said growth would be driven by rising demand in developing countries, where almost one billion people still lacked access to electricity and three billion had no access to clean fuels for cooking.

“All forms of energy will be required to meet this expanded demand in a sustainable way,” Barkindo said during his presentation.

“Renewables are contributing the largest growth in percentage terms, including significant expansion in investment in Opec member countries, particularly here in the UAE. Natural gas has the largest growth in terms of replacing coal (for electricity generation), and oil retains its role with the largest share in the energy mix.

“In fact, oil and gas combined are still expected to make up more than 50 per cent of the energy mix at 2040.”

He said the proportion of demand coming from China, India and other emerging markets would continue to grow, particularly from Asia-Pacific markets. Non-OECD demand would increase by 21.4 mb/d (million barrels per day) by 2040, compared with 2018 figures, while the OECD was expected to reduce by 9.6 mb/d. Total oil demand was expected to reach 110.6 million barrels, with an estimated $10.6 trillion of investment needed across the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors.

However, he noted that it was important that growth be achieved within the context of reducing carbon emissions and – and that new technologies must be developed to ensure the industry could contribute to economic growth, while also helping limit climate change.