据海上石油新闻1月11日消息称，对北海地区来说，这将是值得关注的一年—公司将自2017年以来首次增加产量，勘探和投资的前景看起来都很广阔。

随着企业格局的不断演变，该区域仍将是全球并购交易的热点地区。至关重要的是，北海也将在脱碳方面取得重大进展。

北海上游首席分析师Neivan Boroujerdi表示：“去年，尽管全球经济活动降至20年来的最低水平，北海地区仍有价值150亿美元的资产易手，这一趋势将持续到2020年。”

“私人股本支持的公司现在将考虑退出。如果再加上持续的大规模抛售，这意味着英国会出现逢低买进的可能。”

北海一直是各大石油公司出售资产的主要来源(仅过去三年就出售了200亿美元)，而且随着大型资产剥离目标仍未完成，更多的资产将被出售。

Boroujerdi表示：“一些大公司已经提高了产量，虽然大多数公司仍然致力于该地区的发展，但它们拥有成熟的油田，在另一家运营商手中可能会更好。吸收资本不足的资产和加速复苏的理由仍然存在。”

随着如此多的投资组合涌入市场，谁是买家?

Boroujerdi表示，除了设得兰群岛西部以外，大公司不大可能是买家。

他表示：“资本预算吃紧意味着，股东们不会再对北海进行进一步收购交易。取而代之的是，预计规模较小的独立银行、新的国际银行甚至金融机构会加大投资。”

勘探公司的目标是50亿桶石油当量的无风险资源。由于公司希望从勘探活动中获得更快的回报，这些井通常会在现有基础设施附近和成熟地区钻探。

“我们在2019年看到的勘探复兴将继续下去。尽管全球其它地区的勘探预算仍受到抑制，但我们预计北海将有60口探井，与去年同期持平，与经济低迷前的水平相似。

“挪威将是最活跃的国家，有多达40口井，其中巴伦支海多达10口井。”

在挪威，Equinor、阿克尔BP和伦丁石油是主要参与者。尽管挪威大陆架上基本上不会出现国际石油巨头，但到2020年，它们将经营英国逾三分之一的油井，突显出最大的石油公司仍有兴趣。

曹海斌 摘译自 海上石油新闻

原文如下：

North Sea to remain global hotspot in 2020

It will be a noteworthy year for the North Sea – companies will increase production for the first time since 2017 and the outlook for both exploration and investment is looking healthy.

The region will remain a global hotspot for deals as the corporate landscape continues to evolve. Crucially, the North Sea will also see major steps towards decarbonisation.

Neivan Boroujerdi, principal analyst, North Sea upstream, said: “The buzz that saw US$15 billion worth of assets change hands in the North Sea last year – despite global activity falling to its lowest level in two decades – will continue into 2020.

“Private equity-backed companies will now be thinking about exiting. When combined with a continuation of the Supermajor sell-off, it means there could be bargains to be had in the UK.”

The North Sea has been a key source of disposals for the Majors (US$20 billion in the past three years alone), and with big divestment targets still outstanding, more will come.

“Some of the Majors have already upped sticks, and while most of those still here remain committed to the region, they have mature fields that could be better off in another operator’s hands. The rationale for taking undercapitalised assets and increasing recovery is still there,” Boroujerdi said.

With so many portfolios flooding the market, who are the buyers?

Boroujerdi said that outside of the West of Shetland, the Majors are unlikely purchasers.

“Tight capital budgets mean shareholders will not reward further North Sea acquisitions. Instead, expect smaller independents and new International and even financial players to step up,” he said.

Explorers will target 5 billion barrels of oil equivalent of unrisked resources. The wells will typically be drilled close to existing infrastructure, and in mature areas, as companies look for quicker payback from exploration campaigns.

“The exploration renaissance we witnessed in 2019 will continue. While elsewhere globally exploration budgets remain suppressed, we expect to see 60 exploration wells in the North Sea which is flat year-on-year and similar to pre-downturn levels.

“Norway will see the most activity – with as many as 40 wells, including up to 10 in the Barents Sea.”

In Norway, Equinor, Aker BP and Lundin are the big players. While international Majors will be largely absent on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, they will operate over a third of the UK’s wells in 2020, highlighting there is still appetite from the biggest of companies.