据离岸能源2月22日消息称，根据能源情报公司雷斯塔能源的数据，尽管印尼官方预测年增长率为8%，但石油和天然气产量很可能在2020年下降。

雷斯塔周四表示，该国上游工作组SKK Migas设定了2020年每日75.5万桶石油产量的宏伟目标。

该公司补充称，实现这一目标将意味着产量较去年的每日74.6万桶增长1.2%。

雷斯塔对印度尼西亚的石油日产量估计为71.8万桶。总体而言，今年预计成熟资产的日产量将下降约3.8万桶。与此同时，在增加阶段的资产预计将增加1万桶/天。这表明，与SKK Migas的目标相比，日产油缺口为3.7万桶。

雷斯塔的上游高级分析师Prateek Pandey表示：“在2020年启动的8个油田中，只有马六甲海峡一期是石油开采区，不会单独取代印尼成熟油田不断下降的产量。”

“由于这一点，再加上原定于2019年投产的项目被推迟，即便是维持2019年的石油产量水平也可能会很困难——更不用说实现SKK Migas设定的增长目标了。”

曹海斌 摘译自 离岸能源

原文如下：

Rystad: Indonesia’s oil & gas production to fall short of expectations for 2020

Despite Indonesia’s official projections of an eight percent growth year-on-year, production of both oil and gas will most likely fall in 2020, according to energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy.

Rystad said on Thursday that the country’s upstream task force SKK Migas had set an ambitious oil production target of 755,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) for 2020.

The company added that achieving this target would mean an output growth of 1.2 percent from last year’s 746,000 bpd.

Rystad’s oil production estimate for Indonesia stands at 718,000 bpd. In total, production from mature assets is expected to decline by about 38,000 bpd this year. At the same time, assets in the ramp-up phase are expected to add 10,000 bpd. This indicates a shortfall of 37,000 bpd compared to SKK Migas’ target.

Prateek Pandey, Rystad’s senior upstream analyst, stated: “Out of the eight fields starting up in 2020, only Malacca Strait Phase 1 is an oil play and will not on its own replace the declining production from Indonesia’s mature fields.

“Because of this and the delays to projects that were set to start producing in 2019, even maintaining 2019 levels of oil production might be difficult – let alone meeting the growth targets set by SKK Migas.”