据彭博社3月16日报道，尽管油价下跌，沙特阿美表示，今年仍打算向股东提供至少750亿美元股息。这家全球市值最大的公司于去年12月在沙特阿拉伯首都利雅得上市。该公司在上周日发布的2019年财务报告中表示，将按季度支付股息。

沙特阿美今年资本支出将从2019年的328亿美元降至250亿至300亿美元。即便如此，该公司仍需要至少1000亿美元来兑现其股息和资本支出的承诺，几乎相当于其2019年的支出。

自去年12月底以来，油价已下跌逾50%，至每桶33美元左右，一些分析师预测，油价将进一步跌至每桶10美元以下。低油价将影响沙特阿美的收入，并损害沙特的财政状况。沙特需要84美元的油价来平衡今年的预算。

据利雅得拉吉资本（Al-Rajhi Capital）的数据，假设该公司每天生产1070万桶原油，布伦特原油平均价格为每桶30美元，沙特需要84美元/桶的油价来平衡2020年的预算。

融资是一种选择，因为借贷成本较低，而且公司的负债率仍在5-15%之间。本月，随着全球新兴市场资产的抛售，沙特阿美将于2029年到期的30亿美元债券收益率攀升，但也仅为3.65%，略高于4月份发行该债券时的收益率。

此外，政府还可以削减自己的股息分配，同时向持有该公司约1.5%股份的私人股东支付750亿美元中的一部分股息。

洪伟立 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Aramco Keeps $75 Billion Dividend Promise Even With Oil’s Plunge

Even with oil prices having slumped, Saudi Aramco said it still intends to give at least $75 billion to shareholders this year.

The world’s biggest company by market value, which listed in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh in December, will pay the dividends on a quarterly basis, it said in its 2019 financial results released on Sunday.

Capital expenditure will drop to between $25 billion and $30 billion this year, from $32.8 billion in 2019. Even so, the firm would still need at least $100 billion to meet its dividend and capex commitments alone, almost matching its 2019 payments.

The spread of the coronavirus and the oil-price war instigated by Saudi Arabia after Russia rejected coordinated production cuts has sent Brent crude prices spiraling. They have dropped more than 50% since the end of December to around $33 a barrel, and some analysts predict they’ll fall further to below $10 a barrel.

Low oil prices would crimp Aramco’s earnings and hurt Saudi Arabia’s finances. The kingdom needs an oil price of $84 to balance this year’s budget.

Aramco will be able to achieve a free cash flow of $63 billion in 2020, according to Riyadh-based Al Rajhi Capital. That calculation assumes the company pumps 10.7 million barrels per day and Brent crude prices average $30 a barrel.

Raising debt is an option as borrowing costs are low and the company is still within its debt-to-equity ratio of 5-15%. The yield on Aramco’s $3 billion bond due in 2029 has climbed this month amid a global selloff of emerging-market assets, but at 3.65% is barely higher than when the debt was issued in April.

The government could also cut its own dividend allocations while paying private shareholders, which own around 1.5% of the company, their portion of the $75 billion.