据油价网奥斯陆报道，挪威能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）发表的影响分析报告预测，由于受到疫情和油价战的综合影响，今年全球超过一半回合的许可证出售招标计划可能被取消。与2019年的水平相比，今年全球获得许可证的新的海上探区面积可能减少大约60%，陆上探区面积可能减少30%。

今年原本将会是油气勘探的又一个丰收年，全球大约45个国家将至少启动52轮勘探许可证出售招标，其中大约60%是海上地区。与去年的69轮相比，今年预期的许可证出售招标轮数有所下降，但这并不意味着发放新许可证的国家数目减少了，而是由于巴西、乌克兰、印度和美国等几个国家在去年已进行了多轮许可证出售招标。

雷斯塔能源公司在其分析报告中评估了这些回合的许可证出售招标，并把它们分为三类：可能回合招标、暂定回合招标和不可能回合招标。

雷斯塔能源公司高级上游分析师阿蒂沙·马哈詹说：“不太可能回合招标的次数占了总数的54%，这对全球勘探活动来说是一个令人担忧的迹象。很多因素加在一起让这些回合招标不可能继续，包括油价下跌，全球近20%的投资削减，疫情造成的熟练技术人员的缺乏，在当前环境下被证明缺乏吸引力的财政制度以及潜在参与企业缺乏兴趣。

在欧洲，今年不可能回合招标主要出现在英国、乌克兰、罗马尼亚和德国。在南美洲，哥伦比亚、巴西、厄瓜多尔和多米尼加共和国今年的新回合招标可能不会继续进行，而在亚洲，泰国、乌兹别克斯坦、缅甸和阿联酋的新回合招标可能会暂停。新西兰迄今还没有确定，而在非洲，象牙海岸、阿尔及利亚、坦桑尼亚、塞内加尔、索马里、利比里亚、加纳、赤道几内亚、安哥拉、南苏丹的新回合许可证出售招标也可能暂停。

美国、苏里南、埃及、俄罗斯等国今年新回合许可证出售招标至今悬而未决，它们被标记为暂定回合招标。美国最近完成了其在墨西哥湾的第254轮招标，数字技术在招标中发挥了重要作用，出售过程进行了现场直播。

在过去几个月里，位于南美洲北部的苏里南有了两个重大石油发现，正在成为全球油气勘探的热点。在这些成功的基础上，这个南美国家也许能够继续前进，并结束一次成功的回合招标。然而，苏里南的经济是否将发挥作用取决于如何为参与公司制定未来的油价。

埃及是一个非常有前景的国家，埃及拥有对外开放的许可证出售招标，在这种情况下，我们可以看到拥有大量自由现金流的国际公司愿意参与这个国家的新回合招标。俄罗斯在许可证出售招标中均拥有当地的参与者，因此这个国家可能仍会继续按计划进行新回合招标。

今年可能继续进行许可证出售回合招标的国家包括马来西亚、特立尼达和多巴哥、挪威、印度、黎巴嫩和加拿大等国。尽管目前的行业波动可能会造成轻微的延误，但这些国家看起来很有可能按计划继续他们的新回合许可证出售招标。印度正计划合并OALP(开放探区许可证出售政策)与第5和6轮许可证出售招标，而这些区块将在7月份对外公开拍卖。

加拿大计划继续推进其近海拉布拉多地区海上勘探许可证出售招标。特立尼达和多巴哥凭借其在2019年发现大约4亿桶油当量的重大勘探成功，似乎更愿意与该地区活跃的参与者中的利益相关方合作。

挪威打算在对所有成熟的许可证未出售探区的预定义地区(APA)回合招标中继续其年度许可证授出，并提议在现有区域增加36个挪威海深水区块。

最初预计的52轮许可证出售招标中的8轮已经完成，分别是在巴巴多斯、加拿大(C-NLOPB 2020)、美国(第254轮租赁销售)、加蓬、巴基斯坦、阿曼、澳大利亚和刚果共和国。

马哈詹说：“我们预计，与2019年相比，今年授出的探区面积将大幅减少。从百分比来看，今年授出的海上探区面积的减少可能与2014年至2015年近60%的减少幅度相当，而与上次经济衰退后16%的减少幅度相比，今年授出的陆上探区面积可能减少近三分之一。”

马哈詹说：“我们的分析表明，今年全球授出的探区面积可能会低于2015年的水平，但仍高于2016年的水平。这一切都将取决于全球油气公司的预算以及他们在当前市场环境下承担新风险和勘探承诺的意愿。”

李峻 编译自 今日石油

原文如下：

More than half of 2020 licensing rounds set to be wiped out – Rystad Energy

More than half of the world’s planned licensing rounds are likely to be cancelled this year due to the combined effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing oil price war, a Rystad Energy impact analysis forecasts. New licensed offshore acreage is likely to fall by about 60% and onshore acreage by 30% compared with 2019 levels.

This year was slated to be another remarkable year for exploration with about 45 countries launching at least 52 lease rounds, about 60% of them in offshore areas. The decline in the expected number of lease rounds compared to last year’s 69 was not a sign of fewer countries offering new licenses, but a result of several countries offering multiple rounds in 2019, including Brazil, Ukraine, India and the United States.

In its analysis, Rystad Energy has evaluated the rounds and distributed them in three categories: likely, tentative and unlikely to take place.

“The unlikely upcoming lease rounds represent around 54% – a worrisome sign for global exploration. A number of factors together make these rounds unlikely to go ahead, including the oil-price drop, a global cut in investments by almost 20%, a lack of skilled manpower due to the Covid-19 pandemic, fiscal regimes that are proving unattractive in the current environment, and a lack of interest among potential participating companies,“ says Rystad Energy’s senior upstream analyst Aatisha Mahajan.

In Europe, unlikely rounds are those of the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Romania and Germany. In South America, rounds in Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador and the Dominican Republic may not go ahead, while in Asia rounds in Thailand, Uzbekistan, Myanmar and the UAE may be put on ice. New Zealand is also in doubt, and in Africa, licensing rounds in Ivory Coast, Algeria, Tanzania, Senegal, Somalia, Liberia, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, South Sudan and Nigeria may also be put on hold.

The United States, Suriname, Egypt, Russia and China make up the list of countries where licensing rounds hang in the balance and are marked as tentative. The United States recently concluded its lease round 254 in the Gulf of Mexico with digital technology playing a big role and the sale process was streamed live.

Suriname is developing into a hotspot for global exploration with two major discoveries in recent months. Riding on these successes, the South American nation might be able to go ahead and conclude a successful round. However, economics will play a role depending on how the future oil price is formulated for the participating companies.

Egypt is a very prospective region and has open-door licensing, under which we might witness the willingness to participate from companies with significant free cash flow. Russia have local players as the common bidders in licensing rounds and might therefore still go ahead with their scheduled rounds.

Licensing rounds that are likely to go ahead include countries such as Malaysia, Trinidad and Tobago, Norway, India, Lebanon, and Canada. These countries look well on track to continue their lease rounds as scheduled, although the current industry volatility could cause slight delays. India is planning to combine the OALP (Open Acreage Licensing Policy) with Round 5&6, and these blocks will be up for grabs in July.

Canada plans to go ahead with its offshore Labrador region. Trinidad and Tobago is riding on its significant exploration success having discovered around 400 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2019 and seems to be better placed with interested parties among the active players in the region.

Norway intends to proceed with its annual awards in pre-defined areas (APA) round of all mature, unlicensed acreage, and has proposed adding 36 deepwater Norwegian Sea blocks to the available area.

Eight of the initially expected 52 licensing rounds have already been completed, in Barbados, Canada (C-NLOPB 2020), the US (Lease Sale 254), Gabon, Pakistan, Oman, Australia and Republic of the Congo.

“We expect to see a large drop in awarded acreage this year compared with 2019. In percentage terms, the drop in offshore acreage could match the nearly 60% decline seen from 2014 to 2015, while awarded onshore acreage could shrink by almost one-third compared with a 16% drop after the previous downturn,” adds Mahajan.

Our analysis indicates that global awarded acreage is likely to fall below 2015 levels this year, while staying above the level seen in 2016. All will depend on global oil and gas companies’ budgets and their appetite to take on new risk and exploration commitments in the current market environment.