据5月8日Energy Voice报道，石油价格自2月份以来首次连续两周上涨，主要产油国减产和需求初现复苏，原油市场开始重新恢复平衡。

上周五，纽约原油期货价格逼近每桶25美元，本周以来累计上涨了约24%。全球最大的石油出口国沙特上调了6月份几乎所有品级的油价，这表明该国更有兴趣支持油价回升，而不是赢得市场份额。

还有更多的证据表明，美国的汽油需求开始回升。上周，美国汽油供应（一种消费指标）增长幅度为近两年来的最高水平，而Genscape公司报告称，俄克拉荷马州库欣的库存自上周五以来一直在下降，如果政府数据证实，这将是2月下旬以来的首次库存下跌。

尽管仍有大量石油过剩需要处理，但令人鼓舞的数字促使一些顶级能源分析师做出了乐观的评估。高盛集团大宗商品研究主管表示，全球石油需求正处于“改善轨道”，到6月初可能会超过供应。渣打银行表示，在进入今年剩余时间的过度消费之前，市场将在7月份恢复平衡。

CMC Markets Asia Pacific首席市场策略师迈克尔?麦卡锡(Michael McCarthy)表示:“减产和乐观情绪的结合，正在支撑油价。”不过他也警示称，一些宏观经济数据显示，需求改善的情绪可能是错误的，库存增加仍有可能打压市场的乐观情绪。

截至伦敦时间上午7点12分，纽约商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) 6月份交割的西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)期货价格上涨4.3%，至每桶24.57美元，周四收盘下跌1.8%。布伦特原油7月份结算价上涨2.8%，至30.28美元，使本周迄今的涨幅达到15%左右。

尽管沙特的定价声明让市场松了一口气，但要维持较高的价格，需求将需要强劲增长。作为欧佩克+协议的一部分，沙特于4月底开始减产，但上月原油出口数量仍创纪录。渣打银行数据显示，4月份全球石油供应过剩水平达2130万桶/天。

美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，上周美国汽油日供应量增加了80.4万桶，为2018年6月以来的最大增幅，而汽油与柴油的溢价则攀升至2017年以来的最高水平。据市场人士透露，Genscape周四报告称，自上周五以来，库欣的库存已减少了35万桶。

王佳晶 摘译自 Energy Voice

原文如下：

Oil set for second weekly gain with market starting to rebalance

Oil headed for its first back-to-back weekly gain since February as output cuts from the biggest producers and a nascent recovery in demand began to rebalance a market awash with crude.

Futures in New York rose toward $25 a barrel on Friday and are up around 24% so far this week. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, raised the cost of almost all grades for June, suggesting it’s more interested in supporting a recovery in prices than winning market share.

There was also more evidence demand is starting to comeback in the U.S. Gasoline supplied, an indicator of consumption, rose by the most in almost two years last week, while Genscape Inc. reported that stockpiles at the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma have fallen since last Friday, which would be the first contraction since late February if confirmed by government data.

While there’s still a massive glut to clear, the encouraging numbers are prompting optimistic assessments from some of the top energy analysts. Global oil demand is on an “improving trajectory” and may exceed supply by the start of June, said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The market will return to balance in July before moving into excess consumption for the rest of the year, according to Standard Chartered Plc.

“The combination of production cuts and optimism is supporting prices for now,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific. However, some macroeconomic data suggests the sentiment on improving demand could be misplaced and there’s still a risk that rising inventories could crush the positivity, he said.

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery rose 4.3% to $24.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:12 a.m. in London after closing down 1.8% on Thursday. Brent for July settlement added 2.8% to $30.28, taking its advance so far this week to around 15%.

While the Saudi pricing announcement brought relief to the market, a robust increase in demand will be needed to sustain higher prices. The kingdom began curbing production in late April as part of the OPEC+ deal, but still exported record amounts of crude last month. The level of excess global supply averaged 21.3 million barrels a day in April, according to Standard Chartered.

U.S. weekly gasoline supplied rose by 804,000 barrels a day last week, the biggest jump since June 2018, according the Energy Information Administration, while the fuel’s premium to diesel climbed to the highest since 2017. Genscape reported on Thursday that stockpiles at Cushing have fallen by 350,000 barrels since last Friday, according to market participants.