据油价网2020年5月25日休斯敦报道，自疫情流行并导致油价暴跌以来，能源公司一直在猛砍勘探和生产预算，但由于几乎没有有利可图的投资选择，运营商现在很可能会增加在油气退役项目上的支出。挪威雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）估计，到2024年，全球油气退役项目的总费用将达到420亿美元。如果目前的低油价没有显示出迅速复苏的迹象，拥有平均25年资产寿命的西北欧退役市场到2020年的年承诺额可能会增长20%。除了快速成熟的资产基础和侵蚀商业可行性和潜在寿命延长的低油价以外，有利的服务合同价格也将有助于北海油气退役市场。

到目前为止，只有15%的北海油气资产已经退役，但在未来5年内，我们预计北海平均每年将有23项资产停产。在这方面，英国有望成为领头羊，在未来5年内，估计将有近80%的费用用于欧洲西北部的退役工作，其次是挪威(14%)和丹麦(4%)。该区域在此期间的搬迁项目总金额估计约为170亿美元。相比之下，美国同期的退役成本估计为57亿美元。

雷斯塔能源公司能源服务分析师苏米特·亚德夫表示：“长时间的低价格环境可能会促使运营商利用较低的合同价格，承担资产退役义务，从而促进西北欧地区的退役活动。”“这也将为承包商在原本低迷的油田服务市场提供可喜的机遇。”

英国的高市场份额在很大程度上可以归因于其快速成熟的生产水平，因为该国近80%的石油和天然气资产已经生产了它们超过75%的可利用资源。此外，乏善可陈的勘探结果、不断增加的监管严格和长期的低油价环境可能会导致运营商在没有任何有利可图的竞争投资的情况下履行其资产报废义务。

将推动该地区退役市场的一些领先资产包括英国的布伦特油田、尼尼安油田和Thistle油田，以及挪威的Gyda油田。壳牌公司的布伦特项目将成为有史以来全球退役的最大单一资产，在未来10年里，仅这一项目就将花费近30亿美元。尼尼安油田和Gyda油田将共同提供价值近20亿美元的合同机会。

退役项目支出的增加可能会限制运营商在勘探、开发和提高采收率等其他领域的投资空间。壳牌公司、道达尔公司、雷普索尔公司和Premier石油公司等主要石油公司预计将在未来5年将北海地区10%或更多的支出用于油气资产退役活动。

井的封堵和废弃(P&A) 预计在此期间将占到退役成本的45%左右，其次是平台移除，这将占到总成本的近20%。平台井将成为井P&A活动的主导部分，约占废弃井总数的65%，其余为海底井。然而，在成本方面，海底井将处于领先地位，因为每口海底井平均放弃成本为1100万美元，而每口平台井平均放弃成本为500万美元。

如果低油价持续到今年年底，它可能在推动英国退役支出方面发挥关键作用。近10%的英国海上资产的成本已经超过了每桶25美元，这将阻碍其寿命延长的前景，如果低油价持续下去，退役将成为更好的财务选择。

在2014年油价暴跌后，运营商实施了强有力的成本优化措施，因此现在没有进一步提高成本和效率的空间，这也可能促进退役支出。

总体而言，预计未来10年北海地区将有2500多口油气井退役，其中1500口位于英国。在未来5年，英国大陆架将会移除近30万吨的上层甲板，其中近50个上层甲板将会退役，移除上层甲板的平均每吨费用为5300美元。此外，英国水域预计将拆除近10万吨的地下建筑。与北海更广泛的趋势一致，平台井预计将占到井P&A活动的近70%。

亚德夫总结道：“虽然北海运营商迫切关注退役问题，但普遍的低价格环境为降低退役成本提供了机会。例如，在2014年油价暴跌之后，钻机和船只的日费率下降了30%到40%。我们预计钻机和船只的日费率这次也会呈现下降趋势，可能会持续到2022年。”

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil & Gas Decommissioning To Total $42 Billion Through 2024

Energy companies have been slashing exploration and production budgets since the Covid-19 pandemic took hold and sent oil prices tumbling, but, with few profitable investment alternatives, operators are now likely to increase spending in decommissioning work. Rystad Energy estimates the total value of the global pool of decommissioning projects that will accumulate through 2024 could reach $42 billion.With an average asset age of 25 years, the Northwest European decommissioning market could grow 20% in annual commitments through 2022 if the current low oil prices don’t show signs of substantial recovery soon. In addition to a rapidly maturing asset base and low oil prices that erode commercial viability and potential life extensions, the North Sea decommissioning market will also be helped by favorable service contract prices.

Only about 15% of North Sea assets have been decommissioned to date, but in the coming five years we expect an average of 23 assets to cease production annually. The UK is poised to lead the way with nearly 80% of total estimated expenditure on Northwest European decommissioning in the next five years, followed by Norway with 14% and Denmark with 4%. The pool of removal projects in the region for that period is estimated at about $17 billion. By comparison, decommissioning costs in the US for the same period are estimated at $5.7 billion.

“A protracted low price environment can potentially motivate operators to leverage low contract prices and commit to their asset retirement obligations, thus spurring decommissioning activity in the Northwest Europe region. This will also provide welcome opportunities for contractors in an otherwise gloomy oilfield services market,” says Sumit Yadev, energy service analyst at Rystad Energy.

The high market share of the UK can be largely attributed to its rapidly maturing production levels, as almost 80% of the country’s oil and gas assets have produced more than 75% of their available resources. Additionally, lackluster exploration results, growing regulatory stringency and a prolonged low oil price environment may lead operators to fulfill their asset retirement obligations in the absence of any lucrative competing investments.

Some of the leading assets that will drive the decommissioning market in the region include the Brent, Ninian and Thistle fields in the UK and Gyda in Norway. Shell’s Brent project would emerge as the single largest asset ever decommissioned globally, representing an outlay of nearly $3 billion alone over the coming decade. Ninian and Gyda would collectively present contracting opportunities worth nearly $2 billion.

The increased spending on decommissioning may limit the room for operators to invest in other segments such as exploration, development and enhanced oil recovery projects. Leading players such as Shell, Total, Repsol and Premier Oil are expected to assign 10% or more of their North Sea spending in the next five years to decommissioning activities.

Plugging and abandonment (P&A) of wells is expected to make up about 45% of decommissioning costs for the period, followed by platform removals, which account for nearly 20% of the total costs. Platform wells are set to be the dominant segment for well P&A activity, making up about 65% of the total wells to be abandoned, while the rest are subsea wells. However, in terms of costs, subsea wells will take the lead as they cost on average $11 million each to abandon, compared with $5 million for an average platform well.

The low oil prices could play a pivotal role in boosting decommissioning spending in the UK if they persist beyond the end of this year. Nearly 10% of all UK offshore assets have lifting costs above $25 per barrel, which will hamper their life extension prospects and make decommissioning a better financial option if low prices persist.

Operators implemented strong cost optimization measures after the oil price crash of 2014 and therefore have little room for further cost and efficiency gains now, which may also expedite decommissioning spending.

Overall, more than 2,500 oil and gas wells are expected to be decommissioned across the North Sea in the coming decade, of which 1,500 are in the UK. The UKCS will also witness the removal of nearly 300,000 tonnes of topsides in the next five years, with nearly 50 topsides set to be decommissioned, representing an average topside removal cost of $5,300 per tonne. Additionally, almost 100,000 tonnes of substructures are expected to be removed in UK waters. In line with the broader North Sea trends, platform wells are expected to account for the bulk of the well P&A activity with nearly 70%.

“While decommissioning is becoming a pressing concern for North Sea operators, the prevailing low-price environment presents an opportunity for driving down costs. For instance, after the oil price slump of 2014, rig and vessel rates declined by 30% to 40%. We expect rig and vessel rates to exhibit a downward trend this time as well, with declines likely lasting until 2022,” Yadev concludes.