据5月26日Neftegaz.Ru消息：俄罗斯能源部预计5月石油需求将有所改善，我们已经看到全球石油供应的重大转变，有意或无意的减产将使日产量增至近1500万桶。全球供需形势将在两个月内重新平衡。

全球石油过剩的程度在每天700万到1200万桶之间，消息人士称，欧佩克+希望将现有的减产幅度保持在当前有效期以外，以便有效重新平衡市场。

欧佩克最大的两个石油生产国沙特和伊拉克，重申了他们致力于平衡石油市场的承诺，沙特已承诺在现有配额之外再削减100万桶/天。但是，伊拉克可能难以实现其承诺的目标。

俄罗斯能源部预计市场将在7月份实现再平衡，与此同时，俄罗斯正在考虑禁止所有石油产品进口，此举旨在保护其炼油行业在需求下降之际的利益。

俄罗斯已同意在欧佩克+减产期间将其石油日产量削减至850万桶。通常情况下，俄罗斯对既定的石油生产配额的遵守表现不佳，但这一次，对原油的需求不足促使该国迅速采取行动。

有迹象显示，在美国和欧佩克减产后，石油市场恢复平衡的速度将快于原先的预期。

冯娟 摘译自 Neftegaz.Ru

原文如下：

Russia’s Energy minister sees oil market rebalancing by July

Amid the coronavirus pandemic, oil demand has plummeted over the last few months but Russia’s energy minister Alexander Novak sees the global supply and demand situation rebalancing within two months, according to RIA sources, cited by Reuters.

Russia’s Energy Ministry expects oil demand to improve in May, and notes that we are already seeing major shifts to global oil supplies, with production cuts - either purposefully or otherwise - rising to nearly 15 million barrels per day.

The global surplus, the energy ministry says, is between 7 million and 12 million barrels per day. Reuters sources have indicated that OPEC+ wants to keep the existing production cuts beyond the current June expiry in order to rebalance the market.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq - 2 of OPEC’s largest oil producers, have reaffirmed their commitment to rebalance the oil markets. Saudi Arabia has pledged to cut an additional 1 million bpd on top of its existing quota. Iraq, however, may find it difficult to achieve its promised targets.

The news that the Russian energy ministry sees the market rebalancing by July comes at the same time when Russia is considering banning all oil products imports, in a move designed to protect its oil refining industry at a time of decreased demand.

Russia has agreed to cut its oil production to 8.5 million bpd throughout the duration of the OPEC+ cuts. Normally, Russia’s adherence to its stated oil production quotas have been subpar, but this time, a lack of demand for crude has spurred the country into swift action.

The IEA last week said that it saw signs that the oil market would come into balance quicker than originally thought, after the United States and OPEC brought their production lower - and lower more quickly - than most had anticipated.