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油价虽反弹但面临需求的不确定性

阅读:1635次 日期:2020/06/01

据5月30日Rigzone报道,就在油价跌破零值几周后,出现了有记录以来的最大月度涨幅。

5月份原油价格飙升了约88%,上周五美国原油期货价格自3月份以来首次突破每桶35美元,这主要是受全球生产商大规模限制供应举措的推动。尽管如此,油价仍远低于年初的水平。当下,需求可能需要持续改善,才能进一步推动油价上涨。

目前来看,消费前景黯淡,不过正在好转。美国燃料销售需求尚未大幅回升,西班牙和意大利等欧洲国家的燃料销售受到重创,需要一段时间才能恢复。中国是一个亮点,但亚洲其它地区仍在苦苦挣扎。

美国石油钻机数量连续第11周下降,阻止了大量原油涌入市场。然而,油价的上涨可能会诱使石油生产商再次打开生产开关。

全球咨询公司ICF石油市场高级主管汤姆?奥康纳(Tom O 'Connor)表示:“归根结底,推动一切的因素是燃料需求。但是,潜在的需求低迷仍将持续一段时间。”

美国原油期货价格星期五出现波动, 收盘时油价飙升,西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)结算价上涨5.3%,至每桶35.49美元,前一天下跌4%。期货价格创下了自1983年以来的最大单月涨幅。

周五到期的7月份布伦特原油价格上涨4美分,至每桶35.33美元,这是自2016年以来首次收于WTI下方。这个月全球基准指数上涨了近40%。更为活跃的8月份合约上涨了5%,收于37.84美元/桶。

邹勤 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下:

Oil Facing Demand Uncertainty After Record Rebound

Oil posted its biggest monthly advance on record, just a few weeks after prices made a dramatic plunge below zero.

Crude surged about 88% in May, with U.S. futures on Friday rising above $35 a barrel for the first time since March, driven by massive supply curbs by producers across the world. Still, prices are well below levels at the start of the year, and demand that was crushed by the coronavirus crisis may need to show a sustained improvement for the rally to extend further.

For now, the outlook for consumption looks bleak, though it’s on the mend. While virus-related lockdowns are easing, demand isn’t yet roaring back in the U.S. Fuel sales that were clobbered in European nations such as Spain and Italy will take time to recover. China is a bright spot, but the rest of Asia is still struggling.

The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell for the eleventh week, stemming the massive glut of crude that flooded the market. Yet there’s a risk that oil’s advance could tempt producers to turn on their taps again.

“At the end of the day, what is driving everything is fuel demand,” said Tom O’Connor, senior director of petroleum markets at global consultancy ICF. “There is going to be an underlying depression in demand that is going to be there for some time.”

U.S. crude futures fluctuated Friday, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell defended aggressive action to shield the economy as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Prices surged at the close, with West Texas Intermediate oil settling 5.3% higher at $35.49 a barrel, after falling as much as 4% earlier in the day. Futures posted the biggest monthly jump in data going back to 1983.

Brent crude for July, which expires Friday, rose 4 cents to $35.33, closing below WTI for the first time since 2016. The global benchmark has rallied almost 40% this month. The more active August contract rose 5% to settle at $37.84.

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