据路透社11月25日报道，自今年6月以来，布伦特原油价格一直在每桶37美元至45美元之间波动，原因是投资者在与一系列新冠肺炎导致的限制措施和潜在的疫苗利好消息之间举棋不定。油价最近升至48美元/桶，这是今年3月以来的最高水平，且有望成为新的区间下限。

这听起来可能过于乐观了。在4月份布伦特原油跌破每桶20美元后，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)编制的原油库存跳升至78亿桶，远高于正常水平，而且仍有足够高的库存量来抑制油价上涨。布伦特原油价格走高，也可能促使欧佩克+产油国取消旨在支撑油价的减产计划。同时，美国页岩钻井公司很可能开始开采页岩油气，因为在目前的价格下，能够获利。

不过，国际能源署(IEA) 11月12日做出了悲观预期。该机构预计，在2021年下半年之前，石油需求不会出现明显的提振。目前已有四种疫苗试验成功，这表明人们可以更快地恢复正常生活，进而促使全球需求更快复苏。IEA目前预计，2021年全球石油日需求量为9710万桶，而2019年的需求量为1亿桶。

油价在短期内可能会反弹，而未来几年，还有另一个驱动因素，甚至会抵消各国放弃化石燃料的努力。2019年，全球钻井公司的资本投资为5300亿美元，但根据Rystad Energy咨询公司的数据，2020年的这一数字将降至3800亿美元，到2021年可能会降至3000亿美元，因为新冠肺炎疫情打击了钻井公司的投资战略。即使中国和美国实现长期净零目标，2030年的石油日需求量仍可能达到1.01亿桶，与2019年的水平持平。

潜在的价格上涨，目前在较长期的布伦特原油期货中还不明显。2024年12月交割的合约价格低于50美元/桶。不过，这种情况可能很快就会改变，这也可能促使埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)和荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)等公司重新思考未来发展战略。这两家公司在制定转向可再生能源的具体计划方面比同行要慢，现在，他们可能会转而增加石油投资。

王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil’s latest boost has longer-term thrust

Oil prices are escaping their tunnel vision. Since June, Brent has oscillated between $37 and $45 a barrel, as investors wrestled with a succession of Covid-19 lockdown snakes and potential vaccine ladders. There’s more than one reason to think that the latest jump to $48 a barrel, the highest level since March, may be a new floor.

That may sound prematurely rosy. After Brent sank below $20 a barrel in April, stores of crude oil as compiled by Morgan Stanley jumped to 7.8 billion barrels, far above normal levels, and are still sufficiently elevated to act as a brake on higher prices. Higher Brent could also encourage oil producers who form the so-called OPEC+ group to unwind output cuts intended to prop up prices. They are more likely to do so if U.S. shale drillers start pumping away, given the latter can more easily cover their costs at current prices.

Still, the International Energy Agency’s downbeat Nov. 12 assessment predicting no significant boost to demand until the second half of 2021 is starting to look prematurely glum. There are now four successful vaccine trials, which could allow a swifter return to normal life. That in turn could lead to a quicker recovery in global daily demand, which the IEA currently expects to be 97.1 million barrels next year, compared with 100 million barrels seen in 2019.

While the oil price may bounce around in the short term, there’s a second driver that should provide support in coming years, even offsetting the efforts of countries to wean themselves off fossil fuels. In 2019 capital investment by drillers globally was $530 billion, but according to consultancy Rystad Energy it will drop to $380 billion this year and potentially $300 billion in 2021, as Covid-battered drillers curb investment. And even if China and the United States embrace long-term net zero targets, daily oil demand could still be 101 million barrels in 2030, Bernstein reckons, in line with 2019 levels.

The potential price hike is not currently evident in longer-dated Brent futures: the contract for delivery in December 2024 is currently worth under $50 a barrel. That may soon change. It could also prompt a rethink at companies like Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell, who have been slower than peers to detail a switch to renewable energy. They might now be tempted to ramp up their oil investments instead.