据今日油价1月28日报道，2020年疫情对整个能源行业造成了前所未有的冲击。2021年疫情的演变将是影响能源部门的最大变数，甚至将比政府颁布的任何政策的影响都要大。

随着市场预期能源行业将回归正常水平，能源行业今年在股市中已经快速起步。但是，如果这些预期动摇，并且今年控制疫情所需的时间比预期要长，那么就有可能出现大幅回落。

在此背景下，是能源专家做出的五大预测。

??1. 2021年WTI的平均价格将在50美元/桶至55美元/桶之间

石油仍然是世界上最重要的商品，通常可以通过观察供需趋势以及库存水平来做出预测。

但因为我们不知道需要多长时间才能真正控制住疫情，围绕油价走势有很多不确定性。油价在去年第四季度出现反弹，目前已接近一年前的水平。这预示着经济将强劲复苏。然而，如果需求开始上升，欧佩克可以动用闲置产能，就将给油价带来一些阻力。

2020年，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)的平均价格为每桶39.16美元。这比2019年低了近20美元/桶。今年， WTI的平均价格水平将高于2020年，但能否达到2019年的水平仍是值得怀疑的。

目前WTI现货价格为53.00美元/桶。与一年前相比，需求仍呈下降趋势，这带来了价格进一步下跌的风险。欧佩克可能会在高位设限。因此，预测2021年WTI的年平均价格将在50美元/桶至55美元/桶之间。

然而，值得注意的是。如果现有疫苗无法覆盖病毒出现的新变种，或者需要比预期更长的时间才能控制住疫情，油价将跌破每桶50美元。但如果疫情迅速得到控制，油价有望强劲反弹，可能突破每桶55美元。美国的需求比一年前更弱，但并非所有国家都是如此。欧佩克仍准备增产，但有可能价格会在欧佩克行动前就做出反应。

2. 美国石油总产量将连续第二年下降

根据美国能源信息署(EIA)的数据，美国石油产量在2020年下半年大幅下降。目前，年产量比一年前下降了200万桶/天。近几周，钻井平台数量有所增加，但仍比去年同期下降了57%。

美国政府已经暂停在美国陆地和近海新的石油和天然气租赁和钻探许可，为期60天。他还取消了Keystone XL输油管道的许可，这表明美国政府对石油行业并不友好。

所有这些都表明，美国石油产量可能会继续下降，预计下降速度会放缓，或许会趋于稳定，但要想看到2021年美国石油产量的增长，还需要一个强有力的逆转因素。

3.天然气的平均价格将至少比2020年高出25%

美国亨利枢纽天然气2020年的平均现货价格为2.03美元/百万英热，这是自1997年EIA开始跟踪该数据以来的年平均最低价格。但是石油产量的下降意味着与石油生产相关的天然气供应减少，这将导致供应紧张，这是2020年末天然气价格随后回升的一个因素。

预测这种复苏将持续到2021年。预计到2021年，天然气的平均价格将超过2.50美元/百万英热，这将比2020年增长25%以上。

4. 2021年美国石油进口量将增加

自2005年以来，美国原油进口量稳步下降，当时美国原油进口量平均为1010万桶/天。2016年和2017年，油价下跌对美国石油产量产生了负面影响，导致了一次短暂的逆转。但到2020年底，原油进口量已降至600万桶/天。

预计这一趋势将在2021年逆转。2020年的油价暴跌和政府的新规定可能会导致美国今年的石油产量下降，但总体石油需求将会恢复。这意味着需要更多的进口来填补这一空白。

5. 康菲石油的总回报率将至少达到30%

康菲是全球最大的上市纯石油和天然气生产商，康菲石油近期收盘下跌了近40%。当前，康菲石油的股价仍比一年前下跌了32%。WTI价格为40美元/桶，该公司可以支付股息和资本支出。在油价达到每桶50美元以上时，该公司可以做得很好。

除非2021年油价再次暴跌，预计市场最终会承认这一价值主张——即使油价暴跌，预计康菲石油公司也能挺过这场风暴。该公司有相当长的历史，是地球上管理最好的石油公司之一。该公司还拥有大量天然气业务，因此更高的价格将让其经营成果锦上添花。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

5 Oil And Gas Predictions For 2021

When I made my 2020 predictions a year ago, the world was on the cusp of a pandemic that would upend the oil markets. In the process, it upended two of my energy sector predictions, but three others ended up being correct. The Covid-19 pandemic last year was a black swan event that caused an unprecedented fallout across the energy sector. The evolution of the pandemic this year will be the largest variable impacting the energy sector. Yes, larger even than any policies our new President will enact.

The energy sector is already off to a fast start in the equity markets this year, as the market is anticipating a return to normal. But if those expectations falter and it takes longer than expected to get the pandemic under control this year, there is a risk of a significant pullback.

Against that backdrop, below are my predictions for some of the significant energy trends I expect this year. As I usually point out, the discussion behind the predictions is more important than the predictions themselves. That’s why I provide extensive background and reasoning behind the predictions.

I also make predictions that are specific and measurable. At year’s end, there are specific metrics that will indicate whether a prediction was right or wrong.

1. The average price of WTI in 2021 will be between $50/bbl and $55/bbl.

Oil is still the world’s most important commodity, so I always try to lead off with a prediction on the direction of oil prices. I generally make this prediction by looking at supply and demand trends, as well as inventory levels.

A year ago, I thought my prediction was aggressive, but sound. I felt like oil prices would be strong all year. But this was one prediction the pandemic upended within a month of making it.

Because we don’t know how long it’s going to take to get the pandemic really under control, there’s a lot of uncertainty around the direction of oil prices. Oil prices rallied in the fourth quarter, and are now close to where they were a year ago. That anticipates a strong recovery. However, OPEC is sitting on spare production capacity that they can bring online if demand starts to rise. That will provide some headwinds for oil prices.

In 2020, the average daily price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was $39.16 per barrel (bbl). That was nearly $20/bbl lower than in 2019. This year, I think it’s almost certain that WTI will average higher than it did last year, but I think it’s doubtful that it averages as much as it did in 2019.

The spot price of WTI is presently $53.00/bbl. Demand is still trending lower than it was a year ago, and that presents some risk of prices falling further. OPEC will likely be a cap on the high side. Thus, I predict that the average annual price for WTI in 2021 will be between $50/bbl and $55/bbl.

However, I will add a couple of caveats. If one of the new variants of Covid-19 isn’t covered by the available vaccines — or if it takes longer than expected to get the pandemic under control, oil prices will break back below $50. But if the pandemic is brought under control quickly, we could see a strong recovery in oil prices that could break above $55. Demand in the U.S. is weaker than it was a year ago, but that isn’t the case for all countries. OPEC is still ready to ramp up production, but it is possible that prices may get ahead of OPEC action.

2. Total U.S. oil production will decline for the second straight year.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. oil production plummeted in the second half of 2020. At present, year-over-year production is 2.0 million BPD lower than it was a year ago. The number of rigs drilling for oil has risen in recent weeks, but it is still down 57% from a year ago.

Government has already suspended new oil and gas leasing and drilling permits on U.S. lands and waters for 60 days. He has also canceled the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, signaling that this administration will not be friendly to the oil industry.

All of this points to the likelihood that U.S. oil production will continue the decline it began in late 2020. I expect the decline to slow, and perhaps stabilize, but it would take a strong reversal to see U.S. oil production grow in 2021.

3. The average natural gas price will be at least 25% higher than it was in 2020.

Last year I predicted that natural gas prices would average the lowest level in more than 20 years. That did in fact happen. The average Henry Hub natural gas spot price for 2020 was $2.03/MMBtu, which was the lowest annual average since the EIA began tracking that data in 1997.

But falling oil production means a decline in natural gas supplies that are associated with that oil production. That tightens up supplies, which was a factor in the subsequent recovery of natural gas prices in late 2020.

I predict that recovery will continue into 2021. I expect natural gas prices to average above $2.50/MMBtu in 2021, which would represent a ~25% or more increase above 2020.

4. U.S. oil imports will increase in 2021.

U.S. oil imports have steadily declined since 2005 when they averaged 10.1 million BPD. There was a brief reversal in 2016 and 2017 — a consequence of lower prices that negatively impacted U.S. oil production. But by the end of 2020, crude oil imports had fallen to 6.0 million BPD.

I expect this trend to reverse in 2021. A combination of last year’s price collapse and new regulations from the Biden Administration will likely drive U.S. oil production lower this year, but overall oil demand is going to recover. That means more imports will be called upon to fill the void.

5. ConocoPhillips will have a total return of at least 30%.

I generally like to close with a prediction on ConocoPhillips, which is the world’s largest publicly traded, pure oil and gas producer. Last year I predicted it would return 20% on the year. The company was positioned to have a good year before the pandemic caused oil demand to collapse. So instead, ConocoPhillips closed the year down nearly 40%.

As I write this, the year-over-year WTI price is 8.7% lower. But shares of ConocoPhillips are still 32% lower than they were a year ago. The company is positioned to cover dividends and capital expenditures with WTI at $40/bbl. At >$50/bbl, the company should do quite well.

Barring another collapse in oil prices this year, I expect the market to eventually acknowledge the value proposition. As I said a year ago, even if oil prices collapse I expect ConocoPhillips to weather the storm. They have been around for a long time, and are one of the best-managed oil companies on the planet. The company also has significant exposure to natural gas, so higher prices there will be more icing on the cake.

There you have my 2021 energy sector predictions. As always, I will grade them at the end of the year.