据世界石油7月8日报道称，全球能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹的最新研究显示，二叠纪原油供应的增加意味着到下个十年末，该盆地将需要最高50万桶/天的额外原油输送能力。

随着目前这波管道投资浪潮的结束，预计到2020年初管道产能将会出现些许过剩，到2022年底，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的中游运营商将增加约400万桶/天的新产能。

这波投资浪潮包括七项新建二叠纪油气管道提议，其中四项将达成最终投资决定（FID）。超过200万桶/天的新产能将流入科珀斯克里斯蒂市场用于出口。

伍德麦肯兹发现，管道产能的迅速增加将导致两到三年的过度建设，之后正常的长期产能供需状况才会开始重新形成。

北美原油市场首席分析师约翰科尔曼表示：“随着产量增长持续到本世纪30年代，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的管道产能将会收紧。到本世纪30年代中期，在没有进一步投资的情况下，二叠纪至墨西哥湾沿岸的管道利用率将超过92％，这需要管道扩建或新建产能。”

徐蕾 摘译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Wood Mac: Growth in the Permian may spur fresh wave of infrastructure spending

Growing supply of Permian crude means the basin will need extra crude oil takeaway capacity of up to 500,000 bpd by the end of next decade, according to new research from global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

A moderate overbuild of pipeline capacity is expected in the early 2020s as the current wave of pipeline investments are completed, with midstream operators set to add about 4 MMbpd of new U.S. Gulf Coast-bound capacity by the end of 2022.

This wave of investment includes seven proposals for new Permian pipelines, with four ultimately reaching a final investment decision (FID). More than 2 MMbpd of this new capacity will flow into the Corpus Christi market for export.

The rapid addition of pipeline capacity will result in two to three years of overbuild, before normal long-haul capacity supply and demand conditions begin to re-emerge, Wood Mackenzie found.

John Coleman, principal analyst, North America crude markets, said: “As production growth expands well into the 2030s, US Gulf Coast-bound pipeline capacity will tighten. By the mid-2030s, Permian-to-Gulf Coast pipeline utilization will surpass 92% in the absence of further investment, necessitating pipeline expansions or greenfield capacity.