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石脑油需求疲软致亚洲清洁油轮运价跌至今年低点

阅读:1456次 日期:2019/07/25

据普氏能源资讯7月23日新加坡报道,市场参与者表示,由于石脑油需求疲软,亚洲LR油轮运价出于今年以来的最低水平。

此外,波斯湾日本的LR2运价在近两周内处于今年以来的最低点,目前没有任何复苏迹象。根据标普全球(S&P Global Platts)的数据显示,7月9日LR1利率跌至今年最低水平,此后仅小幅上涨,难以触及三位数的关口。

交易主管告诉普拉茨表示,近几周来,从中东现货市场购买和转移石脑油货物的需求大幅下降,买家更多地依赖年度定期合同来满足他们的需求。供应商也更专注于执行这些定期合同。

东京一位石脑油贸易商表示,由于终端用户不断通过定期合同采购他们的需求,从现货市场提取货物的意愿有限。这反过来又降低了对长距离油轮的需求,并影响了运价,特别是LR2的运价。

在基准的波斯湾-日本航线上,与LR1相比,LR2现在享受超过15个世界尺度点的折扣。由于这种差异,租船人可能转向LR2,而不是LR1。然而,这种倾向趋势还没有出现。

在波斯湾和红海地区,一些过剩的LR1吨位被用来运输较小的部分石油产品货物,这些货物通常在中程或MR油轮中运输。

MRS、LR1和LR2通常分别运载40000公吨、65000公吨和90000公吨的货物。航运和石油产品市场的消息人士表示,需求疲软不仅拖累了运价的下降,而且也影响了石脑油的价格。原油价格疲软也会对石脑油产生负溢出效应。

市场参与者表示,由于价格前景不佳,石脑油供应商已将手头货物减至最少,并将交付给买家的数量最大化。

液化石油气和石脑油之间的激烈竞争使得这种油基原料在东北亚的裂解厂和石化厂中不那么具有吸引力。

尽管远东指数丙烷掉期和日本石脑油掉期的平均价差在截至7月19日的一周内扩大至-94.35美元/公吨,而此前一周的平均价差为-107.95美元/公吨,但烯烃生产商继续为其蒸汽裂解装置采购液化石油气。

周一,在亚洲市场收盘时,普拉茨评估的CFR日本石脑油实物价格为509.25美元/公吨,比上一交易日上涨了8.50美元/公吨。

王佳晶 摘译自 普氏能源资讯

原文如下:

Weak naphtha demand drags Asian clean tanker rates to 2019 low

The Asian Long Range, or LR tanker freight rates are around their lowest levels so far this year, as weak demand to move naphtha impinges on demand, market participants said Tuesday.

Persian Gulf-Japan LR2 rates are at their year-to-date lows for almost two weeks now with no signs of recovery, they said. According to S&P Global Platts data, the LR1 rates had slumped to their lowest level for this year on July 9 and have thereafter posted only modest gains, struggling to hit the psychological three-digit-mark.

Demand to buy and move naphtha cargoes from the Middle East spot market has decreased considerably in recent weeks, trading executives familiar with the matter told Platts.

Buyers are relying more on the annual term contracts to meet their requirements, one such executive said. Suppliers are also more focused to execute these term contracts.

As end-users are constantly sourcing their requirements through term contracts, the appetite to lift cargoes from the spot market is limited, a naphtha trader in Tokyo said.

This in turn has reduced the demand for Long Range tankers, and is weighing on the freight rates, particularly those of the LR2s.

The LR2s now enjoy a discount of more than 15 Worldscale points over the LR1s on the benchmark Persian Gulf-Japan route. Charterers may veer towards the LR2s, vis-a-vis the LR1s, due to this differential. However, a trend along these lines has yet to emerge.

Some of the excess LR1 tonnage is being used to move smaller partial cargoes of oil products within the Persian Gulf and Red Sea region, which are typically carried in Medium Range, or MR tankers.

MRs, LR1s and LR2s typically carry cargoes of up to 40,000 mt, 65,000 mt and 90,000 mt, respectively.

The sluggish demand has not only dragged the freight rates lower, but is also weighing on naphtha prices, sources in the shipping and oil product markets said. There is also a negative spillover effect of weak crude prices on naphtha.

Due to the negative price outlook, naphtha suppliers have minimized cargoes at hand and maximized volumes being delivered to buyers, market participants said.

Stiff competition between LPG and naphtha had made the oil-based feedstock less attractive among the northeast Asian crackers and petrochemical units.

Although the spread between the Far East Index propane swap and Mean of Platts Japan naphtha swap widened to an average of minus $94.35/mt in the week ended July 19, from an average of minus $107.95/mt a week before, olefins producers continue to procure LPG for their steam cracker units.

On Monday, Platts assessed CFR Japan naphtha physical at $509.25/mt at the Asian close, up $8.50/mt from the previous trading session.

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