据世界石油网站7月22日休斯顿报道 伍德麦肯兹业务研究主管Robert Clarke在丹佛举行的非常规资源技术会议（URTeC）上向代表们表示，石油紧缺率的加快是二叠纪盆地运营商越来越担心的问题，由于意外的产量短缺促使生产商考虑加大钻井投资和并购活动。

Clarke表示，随着超低成本的未开采地区变得枯竭，更大面积的产能增长继续放缓，生产商应将重点从早期生产率转移至长期油井性能和生产优化上。

随着二叠纪的成熟，这种转变是不可避免的。随着时间推移，这种下降率可能会增加。

Clarke对代表们表示：“单个油井生产率的提高有助于抵消2017年的下降率，但这些增长在过去两年已经减弱。我们再也看不到运营商发布创记录的生产井。对于今年迄今为止在米德兰沃尔夫坎普钻取的油井，平均初始生产（IP）率下降了6%，我们看到许多工作台的生产率都有所下降。”

“如果运营商致力于实现先前确定的长期目标，那么二叠纪盆地的下降率更高、IP更小，可能会导致运营商需要钻探更多的井。这在短期内尤其具有挑战性，因为今天提高资本预算实际上是不受限制的。”

他补充说：“一些公司正在接受钻机和基础设施的规模经济，以此来提高油井性能和提高下降率。然而我们的分析表明，这种方法在降低成本方面比改善生产特性更有效。”

除了增加资本预算和钻探更多油井外，另一个选择是并购。Clarke表示，在2016-2017年的“永久性”期间，出现了一系列资产和私人对公交易，但现在已经降温。

Clarke 表示：“我们现在正经历一个并购时期，在这个时期，协同效应、成本和现金流比库存更重要。这正在减少看起来像理想收购目标的公司数量。即使下跌速度加快，其余高度经济区的数量也支持我们未来几年二叠纪整体增长的数据。”

王磊 摘译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Faster Permian decline rates demand new investment, M&A strategies

Accelerating tight oil decline rates top a growing list of concerns for Permian basin operators, with unexpected production shortfalls prompting producers to consider stepping up drilling investment and M&A activity, Wood Mackenzie's Robert Clarke, Research Director, told delegates at the Unconventional Resources Technology Conference (URTeC) in Denver.

As ultra low-cost undrilled locations become exhausted and productivity gains across wider sections of acreage continue to moderate, producers should shift their focus from early production rates to longer-term well performance and production optimization, Clarke said.

The shift is inevitable as the Permian matures, and with it, declines rates are likely to increase over time.

Clarke told delegates “Individual well productivity improvements helped to offset decline rates through 2017, but those gains have weakened over the past two years. No longer do we routinely see operators press-releasing record-setting wells. For wells drilled so far this year in the Midland Wolfcamp, average initial production (IP) rates are down 6% and we see productivity reductions across numerous benches.”

“Steeper decline rates and smaller IPs in the Permian basin will likely result in operators needing to drill more wells than originally planned, if they're committed to hitting previously established long-term targets. This will be especially challenging in the near-term because raising capital budgets today is effectively off-limits.”

He added: “Some companies are embracing economies of scale for both rigs and infrastructure as a way to enhance well performance and improve decline rates. However, our analysis indicates this approach is more effective at cutting costs than improving production characteristics.”

The alternative to raising capital budgets and drilling more wells is to turn to M&A. There was a burst of asset and private-to-public deals during the 2016-2017 “Permania” period, but that has now cooled, Clarke said.

“We are now experiencing a period of consolidation in the basin where synergies, costs and cash flow matter more than inventory. This is shrinking the number of companies that look like ideal acquisition targets,” said Clarke. “Even with accelerated declines, the remaining number of highly economic locations supports our overall Permian growth figures for the next couple of years.”