据今日油价8月11日报道，美国的天然气需求正在增长。由于从煤炭发电转向天然气发电，以及液化天然气出口的增长，美国天然气产量正在增长。然而，本周，天然气期货跌至2016年以来的最低水平，现货价格跌至20多年来的最低水平。

据路透社报道，油价大跌的同时，天然气交易商建立了自有纪录以来的最高净空头仓位，并引述一位能源顾问的话称"所有多头都已离场。"

毫无疑问，这是不好的预兆。形势之所以变得如此黯淡，原因很简单:产量增长快于需求增长。在这种情况下，基本面因素强调了它们作为价格驱动因素的作用，而不是最终无法反映现实的供需估算。

媒体对美国天然气的报道一点也不悲观。第二次页岩气革命、全球从石油转向天然气、液化天然气需求持续增长——所有这些趋势都表明，作为全球最大的天然气生产国之一，美国天然气的前景一片光明。事实上，国际能源署(International Energy Agency)表示，到2024年，美国将成为全球最大的天然气出口国。预计到2024年，美国超冷燃料的出口将超过1000亿立方米，超过卡塔尔和澳大利亚，成为全球最大的超冷燃料出口国。

然而，目前美国天然气生产商正在遭受损失。今年4月，瓦哈天然气枢纽的基准天然气合约已降至每百万英国热量单位-9美元。仅仅一个月后，该基准又一次跌至负值，为每百万英热-4.28美元。今年前五个月的平均价格为每百万英热0.92美元。

对于一个需要现金流的行业来说，负价格可能是最糟糕的情况。许多人将其归咎于二叠纪——所谓的“明星油田”挤满了石油钻探商，但水力压裂法在开采原油的同时会释放伴生气，而这些伴生气又不可能全部燃烧，从而增加了本已过剩的供应，并进一步推高了油价。由于缺乏足够的管道能力将过剩的天然气储存起来，这种情况也变得更加严重。

天然气储量不断上升：8月2日的那一周,天然气存储上升了550亿立方英尺，达到了2.689万亿立方英尺。根据EIA数据，今年平均产量应该为910亿立方英尺,却比2018年增长了10%,达到了834亿立方英尺的历史新高。

与此同时，全球天然气需求正在增长，美国正在带头转向用天然气发电。然而，根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency) 2019年的天然气报告，从中期来看，中国将是最大的需求驱动因素。中国可能成为美国最大的天然气出口市场，但前提是国际贸易紧张局势得到解决。就目前情况来看，中国已经大幅减少了对美国液化天然气的进口，这实际上威胁到了这个新兴行业的未来。

此外还面临着其他挑战：今年将有一系列液化天然气项目获得最终投资，分析师担心这些项目可能会遭遇重大成本超支，比如第一批液化天然气项目的成本最终比原计划高出33%。在目前的价格环境下，美国天然气出口商无法承受这种超支，特别是在液化天然气供应过剩的情况下，但这种情况将持续。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

US Gas Prices Slump Despite Soaring Demand

Natural gas demand in the United States is growing. It’s growing thanks to the switch from coal to gas-fired power generation and thanks to the growth in liquefied natural gas exports. And yet this week, gas futures fell to the lowest since 2016 while spot prices slumped to the lowest in as much as two decades.

Reuters’s Scott DiSavino reports that the price slump was accompanied by gas traders building the highest number of net short positions since records began and quotes an energy consultant as saying “All the bulls are gone.”

Ominous words, no doubt. The reason the situation is turning so gloomy is a simple one: production is rising faster than demand. It’s a situation where fundamentals reassert their role as price drivers as opposed to supply and demand estimates that ultimately do not reflect reality.

Media coverage on U.S. natural gas has been anything but gloomy. A second shale revolution, a global shift from oil to gas, a sustained increase in LNG demand are all among the trends pointing to a glorious future for one of the world’s top producers. In fact, the International Energy Agency said the U.S. will become the world’s largest natural gas exporter by 2024. U.S. exports of the superchilled fuel are expected to exceed 100 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024, beating Qatar and Australia to the top spot.

And yet right now U.S. gas producers are suffering. In April this year, the benchmark natural gas contract at the Waha Hub slipped to a negative $9 per million British thermal units. Just a month later, the benchmark slipped into negative territory once again, at -$4.28 per mmBtu. The average price for the first five months of the year was $0.92 per mmBtu.

Negative prices are probably the worst that could happen to an industry that needs cash. Many blame the Permian. The so-called star play is crowded with oil drillers, but fracking releases associated gas along with the crude and this associated gas cannot be all flared, adding to already excessive supply and pressuring prices further. This situation has also been aggravated by the lack of sufficient pipeline capacity to take the surplus gas into storage.

Even without enough pipelines, however, natural gas in storage is rising: for the week to August 2, gas in storage rose by 55 billion cu ft to a total 2.689 trillion cu ft. Production this year, according to the EIA, should average 91 billion cu ft this year, up by 10 percent from 2018, when it reached an all-time record high of 83.4 billion cu ft.

Meanwhile, global natural gas demand is growing and the United States is leading the way with the shift to gas-fired power plants. Yet, according to the International Energy Agency’s Gas 2019 report, China will be the biggest demand driver over the medium term. China could become the biggest export market for U.S. gas, but only if the two settle their trade differences. As things stand now, China has reduced its intake of U.S. LNG significantly, effectively threatening the future of a nascent industry.

There are also other challenges: a flurry of LNG projects are scheduled to get their FIDs this year, and analysts are worried they may suffer major cost overruns like the first wave of LNG projects that ended up costing a combined 33 percent more than originally planned. In the current price context, U.S. gas exporters cannot afford this kind of overrun, especially amid an LNG glut that is set to persist into the medium term.