据近日油价8月17日报道，有两个因素使得伊拉克对石油出口基础设施的建设比以往任何时候都更为重要。首先，在当前地缘政治僵局中，波斯湾的安全局势日益危险。第二，伊拉克石油的出口量持续增长,整个7月，销售额包括库尔德地区(KRI)在内的整个伊拉克石油销售平均为400.7万桶/天,高于上月的394.6万桶，接近去年12月创纪录的415.9万桶。

目前，伊拉克的石油出口维持在400万桶/天的水平,基础设施基本上可以应付，但高于这一水平的任何重大变动都是不可行的。位于伦敦的全球能源咨询公司能源方面的中东高级能源分析师Richard Mallinson表示，这将阻碍伊拉克的核心能源战略，即到2020年底将原油日产量提高620万桶，到2023年底将原油日产量提高900万桶。

Richard Mallinson表示，事实上，伊拉克联邦政府的所有出口努力都集中在南部的巴士拉设施上,这意味着通过波斯湾运输石油,使其成为地缘政治问题的中心。波斯湾所有船舶的保险费飞涨，影响到伊拉克所有船舶的利润率。

此外，石油需要通过内部管道运输到达巴士拉，但这些管道往往不健全，需要尽快升级。石油进入Al-Fao主要出口仓库，储存和混合。不过，在这方面，仍然没有足够的投资，任何超过目前水平的石油进口都是不可持续的，这意味着石油供应可以在油田本身得到补充，这就意味着存在严重的生产瓶颈。这也阻碍了伊拉克推出新的石油等级——巴士拉中质原油(Basrah Medium)，这本来会增加现有的巴士拉重油和巴士拉轻质原油所带来的收入。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Iraq Moves To Upgrade Oil Export Capacity

Two factors make the urgent build-out of Iraq’s ailing and inadequate oil export infrastructure more essential than ever. The first is the increasingly dangerous security situation in the Persian Gulf following tit-for-tat seizures of vessels connected to the Iran and U.S. sides in the current geopolitical standoff, with more involvement expected shortly from Russia and China. The second is the continued growth in oil exports from Iraq, with sales in July from the whole of Iraq, including the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI), averaging 4.007 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 3.946 million bpd the previous month and edging up to the record 4.159 million bpd last December.

As it stands, with Iraq’s oil exports around the 4 million bpd level, the infrastructure is just about able to cope but any significant movement above that level is not doable, Richard Mallinson, senior Middle East energy analyst for global energy consultancy, Energy Aspects, in London, told OilPrice.com last week. This would stymie Iraq’s core energy strategy of monetising increased crude oil production of 6.2 million bpd by the end of 2020 and 9 million bpd by the end of 2023.

“Virtually all export efforts in the Federal Government of Iraq [FGI, that does not include the KRI], are focussed on the Basra facility in the south, which means moving oil through the Persian Gulf, which puts it in the centre of the current security problem between the U.S. and Iran,” he said. Although Iraq’s Oil Ministry denied that the MT Riah tanker ship that was recently seized by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was not connected to Iraq, and it is unlikely that Iran would interfere with the ships of one of its close allies, the danger of an accident remains and the sky-rocketing insurance premia for all ships in the Persian Gulf impacts profit margins on all shipments for Iraq.

To get to Basra, oil is moved via internal pipelines but these are often unsound and need to be upgraded as soon as possible, Mallinson added. From there, oil makes its way into the Al-Fao main export depot, where it is stored and blended. “Here again, though, there has not been adequate investment and anything over current levels of oil coming in is not sustainable, meaning that oil supplies can be backed up in the oil fields themselves, which then means significant production bottlenecks,” he underlined. “This has also held up the roll-out of the Iraq’s new oil grade – Basrah Medium – that was to have added to the revenue streams generated by the existing Basrah Heavy and Basrah Light,” he told OilPrice.com.