据普氏能源资讯8月23日休斯敦报道，普氏分析公司数据显示，由于拉丁美洲需求强劲，净回价差为正价差并预计将在10月份继续扩大，流入美国LNG出口终端的原料气流量在周五创下每日65亿立方英尺的新纪录。

随着德克萨斯州自由港LNG成为美国第六个投产的大型液化设施，钱尼尔能源完成了路易斯安那州萨宾帕斯液化设施的维护，以及金德摩根继续在佐治亚州的Elba终端准备首批货物，过去一周美国LNG产量有所上升。

除了来自墨西哥湾和大西洋沿岸新产能的供应推动外，巴西和墨西哥等二级市场近期也出现了需求拉动。巴西国家石油公司最近表示，公司正考虑削减玻利维亚天然气管道的进口，转而支持更经济的LNG，而墨西哥则继续等待跨境的南德州-塔克斯潘管道的商业启动。

周五晚美国管道项目的初步提名得到了萨宾帕斯3号和4号生产线的支持，这两条生产线在经过三周的定期维护后已恢复服务，而钱尼尔位于德克萨斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂附近的出口设施也已满负荷运行。提名可能会被修改，而且经常会随着时间的推移而改变。

最近，市场出现了相对较弱的净回价差，普氏分析公司估计，西欧的净回价差仅为小幅正价差，而东北亚现货交易LNG的基准价格普氏JKM指数的净回价差约为30美分/百万英热单位。

但衍生品市场强劲的期货溢价表明，价差将在今年秋季扩大，荷兰产权转让设施指数(TTF) 净回值在10月份的开盘价高达60美分/百万英热单位，而JKM指数掉期则表明，在同等的出口期内，价差将超过1.5美元/百万英热单位。

只要存在正价差，LNG就会流向这些市场。

普氏分析公司的数据显示，尽管美国LNG出口设施的秋季维护工作可能还会继续，但远期曲线显示，经济自闭的直接威胁可能已经过去。

随着自由港LNG项目的启动，构成美国主要LNG终端的第一波出口设施正在生产LNG。在全球供应可能面临短缺之际，十几个其它出口设施——第二波设施——正积极开发，准备在本世纪20年代初至中期启动。然而，有些设施难以获得足够的承建合同来为建设融资。

裘寅 编译自 普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

Latin American demand helps lift US liquefaction feedgas volumes to record levels

Feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals reached a new record of 6.5 Bcf/d on Friday, subject to revisions, amid robust demand in Latin America and positive netback spreads that are expected to strengthen into October, S&P Global Platts Analytics data show.

The ramp-up over the past week came as Freeport LNG in Texas became the sixth major US liquefaction facility to begin production, Cheniere Energy finished maintenance at its Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and Kinder Morgan continued to prepare its first cargo at its Elba terminal in Georgia.

In addition to a supply push from new capacity coming online along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, there has been a near-term demand pull into secondary markets like Brazil and Mexico. Brazil's Petrobras said recently it was looking to cut Bolivian gas pipeline imports in favor of more economic LNG, while Mexico continues to wait for commercial start-up of the cross-border Sur de Texas-Tuxpan (STT) pipeline.

The preliminary evening cycle US pipeline nominations for Friday were bolstered by Sabine Pass trains 3 and 4 having returned to service after three weeks of scheduled maintenance and Cheniere's export facility near Corpus Christi, Texas, operating at full capacity on trains 1 and 2. Nominations are subject to revision and often change from one day to the next.

Most recently, the market has seen relatively weak netback spreads, which Platts Analytics estimates as only slightly positive from Western Europe and roughly 30 cents/MMBtu from Platts JKM, the benchmark price for spot-traded LNG in Northeast Asia.

But strong contango in the derivatives markets suggest that spreads will open up this fall, with the Dutch Title Transfer index, or TTF, netback opening up to 60 cents/MMBtu in October, while the JKM swaps indicate a spread of over $1.50/MMBtu during the equivalent export period.

As long as there is a positive spread, LNG will flow to those markets.

While further fall maintenances may still be in store for US LNG export facilities, the forward curve suggests that the immediate threat of economic shut-ins may have passed, Platts Analytics data show.

With the startup of Freeport LNG, all of the export facilities that make up the first wave of major US LNG terminals are producing LNG. A dozen or so other export facilities -- the so-called second wave -- are actively being developed for startup in the early to mid-2020s, at a time when the global supply stack could face a shortage. Some are, however, having difficulty securing sufficient offtake contracts to finance construction.