据世界能源网8月24日消息称，2019年海上市场将自2014年以来首次出现同比增长。但雷斯塔能源分析师表示，乐观的前景很容易受到未来几年油价大幅下跌的影响。

雷斯塔能源油田服务团队分析师HenningBjorvik表示：“我们预计，未来几年海上石油市场将蓬勃发展，但如果油价跌至每桶50美元，市场增长将面临风险。”

总部位于挪威的独立能源研究和咨询公司雷斯塔能源分析了未来几年全球海上区块的前景。

今年的开发基本上锁定在待重新开发的和已获批准的项目上，但油价将决定未来的增长。

在油价为60至70美元的环境下，到2025年，海上石油市场的年增长率有望达到7%左右。但如果布伦特原油价格跌至每桶50美元，这种活动的很大一部分将面临风险。

雷斯塔能源认为，到2022年，这一水平的价格仍足以支撑海上市场5%的年增长率，但在那之后，增长率可能会降至零。

Bjorvik说：“尽管我们预计海上市场将成为油田服务业增长率最快的市场之一，但与油田服务市场相比，海上市场也更容易受到油价下跌的影响。我们认为海上支出和增长方面存在重大风险。”

曹海斌 摘译自 世界能源网

原文如下：

Oil Price Controls Subsea Market Growth

The subsea market in 2019 will experience year-on-year growth for the first time since 2014. But the positive outlook is vulnerable to any significant decline in oil prices over the next few years, according to analyst Rystad Energy.

“We expect the subsea market to thrive during the coming years, but market growth will be at risk if the oil price falls to $50 per barrel,” says Henning Bjorvik, an analyst on Rystad Energy’s oilfield service team.

Rystad Energy, the independent energy research and consulting firm headquartered in Norway, has analyzed the outlook for global subsea segments in the coming years.

Development this year is essentially locked in with brownfield opportunities and already sanctioned projects – but the oil price will dictate growth moving forward.

In a $60 to $70 oil environment, the subsea market is poised to grow around 7% annually up to 2025. But a significant portion of this activity is at risk if the price of Brent crude falls to $50 per barrel.

Rystad Energy believes the prices at that level would still be enough to support 5% annual growth in the subsea market through 2022, but after that the growth rate could fall to zero.

“Although we expect the subsea market to have one of the highest growth rates within oilfield services, the segment is also more vulnerable to an oil price drop than the oilfield services market in general. We see significant risks in terms of subsea spending as well as growth,” Bjorvik said.