据今日油价8月21日报道，美国可能在未来10年“让世界淹没在石油中”，根据全球见证组织(Global Witness)的说法，这将给全球应对气候变化的努力“带来灾难”。

未来10年，美国将占所有新增油气产量的61%。该组织最近的一份报告称，为了避免气候变化带来的最坏影响，负担不起从世界任何地方的新油田中开采石油和天然气。当然，这将很快导致全球赤字，因为世界每天继续消耗大约1亿桶石油。

Global Witness指出，尽管独立的油气公司和资金紧张的油气公司最近削减了开支，但美国的油气行业并没有放缓。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是二叠纪和其他页岩盆地的整合——越来越多地由石油巨头主导——确保了未来几年钻探活动将继续以稳定的速度进行。

并不是说世界其他地区也在放缓。据Rystad Energy的数据显示，全球石油行业今年将批准价值1,230亿美元的海上石油新项目，较去年的6,900亿美元增加近一倍。事实上，尽管在过去一年里，由于投资者的怀疑和糟糕的财务回报，页岩钻探活动有所放缓，但离岸项目已开始加快步伐。

但这种趋势可能只是昙花一现。预计美国仍将占据大部分新钻井和绝大多数新产量，其中大部分来自页岩气。美国已经是世界上最大的石油和天然气生产国。近年来，这一速度有所加快。2018年，美国石油和天然气产量分别增长16%和12%。美国能源信息署(EIA)的数据显示，2011年美国天然气产量超过俄罗斯，位居榜首，去年美国石油产量超过沙特阿拉伯。

未来，美国的新产量将是全球第二大增长源加拿大的8倍。事实上，据全球见证称，美国的石油和天然气产量将是世界其他国家总和的1.5倍。

但由于美国的钻探活动集中在少数几个地区，美国各州都有自己的钻井平台。如果德克萨斯是一个地区，它将成为世界上新石油和天然气产量最多的地区。该组织表示，在2020年至2029年间，德克萨斯州油气产量可能占所有新增产量的28%。

加拿大和宾夕法尼亚州并列第二和第三，各占7%。其次是新墨西哥州，增长率为5%，北达科他州为4%。俄克拉荷马州、巴西、科罗拉多州、俄罗斯和俄亥俄州的增长率均为3%。

换句话说，未来10年全球新油气产量前十的地区中有7个来自美国。

Global Witness在报告中表示:“如果情况不发生变化，到下一个十年末，美国新油田和天然气田的产量将是沙特目前产量的两倍以上。”

全球见证组织表示：“这是一个巨大的挑战。为了避免气候变化带来的最坏影响，我们的分析显示，未来十年全球石油和天然气产量需要下降40%。然而，在新油田扩张的推动下，美国石油和天然气产量将在这段时间内增长25%，而不是下降。”

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

U.S. To “Drown The World” In Oil

The U.S. could “drown the world in oil” over the next decade, which, according to Global Witness, would “spell disaster” for the world’s attempts to address climate change.

The U.S. is set to account for 61 percent of all new oil and gas production over the next decade. A recent report from this organization says that to avoid the worst effects of climate change, “we can’t afford to drill up any oil and gas from new fields anywhere in the world.” This, of course, would quickly cause a global deficit, as the world continues to consume around 100 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil.

Global Witness notes that the industry is not slowing down in the United States, notwithstanding recent spending cuts by independent and financially-strapped oil and gas firms. If anything, the consolidation in the Permian and other shale basins, increasingly led by the oil majors, ensures that drilling will continue at a steady pace for years to come.

It isn’t as if the rest of the world is slowing down either. The global oil industry is set to greenlight $123 billion worth of new offshore oil projects this year, nearly double the $69 billion that moved forward last year, according to Rystad Energy. In fact, while shale drilling has slowed a bit over the past year amid investor skepticism and poor financial returns, offshore projects have begun to pick up pace.

But that trend might turn out to be just a blip. The U.S. is still expected to account of the bulk of new drilling and the vast majority of new production, with much of that coming from shale. Already, the U.S. is the world’s largest producer of both oil and natural gas. And the pace has accelerated in recent years. In 2018, U.S. oil and gas production increased by 16 and 12 percent, respectively. According to the EIA, the U.S. surpassed Russia in terms of gas production in 2011, claiming the top spot, and it surpassed Saudi Arabia in oil production last year.

Going forward, new production from the U.S. will be eight times larger than the next largest source of growth, which is Canada. In fact, the U.S. will add 1.5 times more oil and gas than the rest of the world combined, according to Global Witness.

But because so much drilling in the U.S. is concentrated in a few areas, individual U.S. states on their own tower over the rest of the world. If Texas were a country, it would account for the most new oil and gas production in the world. Between 2020 and 2029, Texas could account for 28 percent of all additional output, Global Witness says.

Canada and Pennsylvania tie for second and third with 7 percent each. Then comes New Mexico at 5 percent of the growth and North Dakota at 4 percent. Oklahoma, Brazil, Colorado, Russia and Ohio are all tied at 3 percent a piece.

In other words, 7 out of the top 10 sources of new oil and gas production globally over the next decade are U.S. states.

“If things don’t change, by the end of the next decade, new oil and gas fields in the US will produce more than twice what Saudi Arabia produces today,” Global Witness said in its report.

This presents a massive challenge. “To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, our analysis shows that global oil and gas production needs to drop by 40% over the next decade. Yet, instead of declining, US oil and gas output is set to rise by 25% over this time, fueled by expansion in new fields,” the report warned.