据海事新闻9月11日消息称，DNV GL表示，全球石油需求将在本世纪20年代中期达到峰值，天然气需求将持续上升至2033年。

它表示，届时天然气需求将趋于稳定，在2050年预测期结束之前燃料将保持主导地位，届时天然气将占全球能源供应的29%以上。

为了确保生产能够满足需求，将需要进行大量投资，包括实现滞留天然气储量和储量替代的潜力。DNV GL预测全球上游天然气资本支出将在2025年达到7370亿美元，2050年达到5870亿美元。

根据DNV GL的报告《2019年能源转型展望》，从2019年到预测期结束，非常规陆上天然气的产量将会增加，比2017年的产量水平增长68%。产量将主要来自北美。

到本世纪30年代末，传统陆上天然气产量将保持目前的产量水平。到本世纪中叶，这一比例将缓慢下降，最终将比2017年低19%左右。北美的产量已经开始下降，但欧亚大陆东北部的产量将继续上升，直到2033年。

到2040年，海上天然气产量将会增加，届时将比2017年高出58%。到2050年，产量仍将比2017年高出三分之一以上(39%)，其中中东和北非的产量最大。

发电将成为大多数地区天然气的主要消费目的，而中国、印度和拉丁美洲的制造业(主要是石化行业)将对其构成挑战。

曹海斌 摘译自 海事新闻

原文如下：

Natural Gas to be 29% of World’s Energy Supply by 2050

The global oil demand will peak in the mid-2020s and gas demand will keep rising to 2033, says DNV GL.

Gas demand will then plateau, and the fuel will remain dominant until the end of the forecast period in 2050, when it will account for over 29% of the world’s energy supply, it said.

Significant investment will be required to ensure production meets demand, including realising the potential from stranded gas reserves and for reserve replacement. DNV GL forecasts global upstream gas capital expenditure to reach USD 737 billion (bn) in 2025, and USD 587 billion in 2050.

According to 2019 Energy Transition Outlook, a report by DNV GL, unconventional onshore gas will increase from 2019 right through to the end of the forecast period, growing by 68% from 2017 production levels. Production will principally come from North America.

Conventional onshore gas production will be maintained at today’s output rates until the late 2030s. It will then decline slowly to mid-century, ending at about 19% lower than 2017. Production has already begun to fall in North America, but it will continue to rise in North East Eurasia until 2033.

Offshore gas production will rise until 2040, when it will be 58% greater than in 2017. In 2050, it will still be more than a third (39%) higher than in 2017, with the Middle East and North Africa providing the greatest production volumes.

Power generation will be the main consumer of gas in most regions, challenged by manufacturing (mainly petrochemicals) in China, India, and Latin America.