根据彭博社11月14日报道，美国页岩开发热潮的先驱们警告说，石油生产增长速度可能会放缓，但美国政府似乎并不同意这种说法。

根据周三的月度短期能源展望，美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)将其对2020年原油产量增长率的预测从10月份的每日91万桶上调至100万桶。

这份报告出人意料的是，有迹象显示企业正在控制支出，将重点放在股东回报上，而不是继续烧钱。

纽约瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities USA)期货部门主管鲍勃?雅格(Bob Yawger)表示:“美国能源情报署（EIA ）并不真的相信这种说法。”“在我看来，他们会降低这些数字。”

就在几个小时前，先锋自然资源公司(Pioneer Natural Resources Co.)的谢菲尔德(Scott Sheffield)在接受彭博电视台(Bloomberg TV)采访时表示，随着石油生产商控制支出，他怀疑美国的原油产量能否达到国际能源署(International Energy Agency)最新的增长预测。国际能源署周二说，到2030年美国将占全球石油产量增长的85%。

高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)分析师说，他们预计明年美国原油日产量将增加60万桶，低于此前估计的70万桶。

赵斌 编译自 彭博社

US Boosts Oil Output Forecast

The pioneers of the U.S. shale boom are warning of a slowdown in oil production growth, but it appears the U.S. government doesn’t agree.

The Energy Information Administration revised up its forecast for the growth rate for crude output in 2020 to 1 million barrels a day from 910,000 barrels a day in October, according to the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Wednesday.

The report came as a surprise given signs that companies are reining in spending to focus on shareholder returns rather than keep burning through cash.

“The EIA is not really convinced that’s the case,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA in New York. “It seems to me that they will walk those numbers down.”

Just hours earlier, Pioneer Natural Resources Co.’s Scott Sheffield expressed doubts that U.S. oil output will meet the latest growth forecasts made by the International Energy Agency as producers rein in spending, speaking in an interview on Bloomberg TV. The IEA said Tuesday that the U.S. will account for 85% of the growth in production worldwide to 2030.

And analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said they see U.S. output rising by 600,000 barrels a day next year, down from a previous estimate of 700,000 barrels.