据11月25日Hydrocarbon Processing报道，国际能源署(IEA)表示，欧佩克及其盟友在2020年将面临日益激烈的竞争，这给下月召开的欧佩克会议增添了紧迫感。

IEA在一份月度报告中表示:“预计2020年全球原油需求将大幅下降，欧佩克+成员国在将面临重大挑战。”

IEA以美国、巴西、挪威和圭亚那的石油产量为例，预计明年非欧佩克国家的石油日产量将增至230万桶，而2019年为180万桶/天。

该机构补充道:“明年上半年可能形成的巨大供应缓冲，将给下月初齐聚维也纳的欧佩克及其它成员国的部长们带来些许安慰。”

IEA称，因企业将资本约束放在首位，尽管美国10月原油日产量增加14.5万桶，但今年早些时候开始的经济活动放缓似乎仍将持续。

IEA预测，2020年欧佩克的原油日需求将为2890万桶，较目前的产量低100万桶/天。

沙特阿拉伯已经从该国石油基础设施遭受的攻击中恢复过来，为10月份全球石油供应增加了140万桶/日，达到150万桶/日。

国际能源署表示:“沙特阿美的IPO计划正在进行中，加上沙特政府预算资金收入的持续需求，因此该国有充分的理由来维持油价。”

沙特阿美，可谓是世界上最赚钱的公司，将于11月17日进行首次公开募股(IPO)，募集资金可能在200亿到400亿美元之间。

洪伟立 摘译自 Hydrocarbon Processing

原文如下:

OPEC+ faces 'major challenge' from competitors' surging output

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies face stiffening competition in 2020, the International Energy Agency said, adding urgency to the oil producer group’s policy meeting next month.

“The OPEC+ countries face a major challenge in 2020 as demand for their crude is expected to fall sharply,” the Paris-based agency said in a monthly report.

The IEA estimated non-OPEC supply growth would surge to 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year compared to 1.8 million bpd in 2019, citing production from the United States, Brazil, Norway and Guyana.

“The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month,” it added.

While U.S. supply rose by 145,000 bpd in October, the IEA said, a slowdown in activity that started earlier this year looks set to continue as companies prioritize capital discipline.

Demand for crude oil from OPEC in 2020 will be 28.9 million bpd, the IEA forecast, 1 million bpd below the exporter club’s current production.

The recovery by OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia from attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure contributed 1.4 million bpd to the global oil supply increase in October of 1.5 million bpd.

“With plans underway for the Aramco IPO and the persistent need for revenues to fund the government budget, Riyadh has every incentive to keep oil prices supported,” the IEA said.

Saudi state oil company Aramco, the world’s most profitable firm, starts a share sale on Nov. 17 in an initial public offering (IPO) that may raise between $20 billion and $40 billion.