据天然气新闻2020年1月10日休斯顿报道，在美国页岩油蓬勃发展初期看到的页岩油生产率大幅提升的现象可能正在减弱，但据分析人士称，这种情况可能不会结束。他们预计，今年——至少对某些公司而言——页岩油生产率将小幅提高。

虽然页岩油生产率预计将会上升，但钻井作业已经放缓，因此页岩油产量增长预计也将放缓。例如，位于得克萨斯州西部的特拉华盆地的页岩油日产量今年12月预计将平均150万桶，比上年同期将增长15%，但这个增长幅度将低于2019年12月16%的增幅和2018年12月57%的增幅。

由于勘探和生产公司钻取了更长的侧向井或水平腿，并使用了更多的支撑剂(砂和/或水)，使裂缝保持张开促进油气流向地面。

但专家表示，在一些地方，运营商正开始挑战页岩气产量的极限，除非出现令人吃惊的新技术突破。

李峻 编译自 天然气新闻

原文如下：

US shale oil productivity growth expected to slow in some basins

The dramatic jump in productivity seen in the early days of the US shale oil boom may be waning, but is likely not over, according to analysts, who expect efficiencies, at least for some plays, to edge higher in 2020.

While productivity is expected to climb, drilling has slowed, and thus shale production gains are expected to slow. In the Delaware Basin in West Texas, for instance,?Iit expects crude output to average 1.5 million b/d in December 2020, up 15% on the year. That's down from a 16% gain in December 2019, and a 57% gain in December 2018.

Wells have become increasingly larger as E&P companies have drilled longer laterals, or horizontal legs, and used more proppant – sand and/or water that keep fractures open and facilitate oil and gas flow to the surface.

But in some places, operators are beginning to push up against the limits of how much shale they can deliver without some startling new technology breakthrough, experts say.